What states do we have the best shots on Super Tuesday?

[Son of Detroit]

I'm guessing Alaska, Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois? Are there any sleeper states out there? I've been marking down my calender for this for a long time. I know I won't be able to sleep the night of 2/4. Heck, I might even decide to "be sick" the 5th and stay home from school to watch everything unfold. I know I wouldn't be able to concentrate anyway.

[Trigonx]

RP is stopping in North Dakota on the 4th i believe. also Montana is a ripe state for us.

[Badger Paul]

North Dakota, Alaska, Montana, Hawaii, Colorado. I would go to work and have pleasant day and come back here on the 6th and find out how REALLY did. The MSM isn't going to be reporting on these caucuses compared to the primaries so you'll have to paitiently wait to see how things shake out.

[terlinguatx]

...

[Trigonx]

Next tuesday these forums are going to be PACKED with people. 4000+ users on at least. I wonder how much negativity will be around.

[RonPaulFanInGA]

I voted for Ron Paul here in Georgia today. He's polling in the double digits...but Huckabee is running away with the state. I think second place here is very possible.

[R_Harris]

Pretty good guesses, we got a shot in every state. Here's my ranking from highest to lowest probability of victory:

Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Georgia
New Jersey
California
Montana
Tennessee
New York
Minnesota
North Dakota
Utah
Illinois
Arkansas
Missouri
Massachusetts
Connecticut
Delaware
Oklahoma


Wow, Arizona (McCain's state) and California that high? And what objective evidence are you basing your opinion on?

If we placed 3rd in either one of those states, that would be HUGE.

[Bilgefisher]

Don't forget Colorado. We have the 4th highest donations per capita and its a closed caucus. Downside is there are a lot of Mormons here and countrary to what Mitt Romney claims, they do vote based on religion. 95% in Nevada as proof.

[scandinaviany3]

Wow, Arizona (McCain's state) and California that high? And what objective evidence are you basing your opinion on?

If we placed 3rd in either one of those states, that would be HUGE.

CA isnt winner takes all? Isnt it by congressional district?

If so does it matter placing as long as you win a lot of districts?

[InLoveWithRon]

Pretty good guesses, we got a shot in every state. Here's my ranking from highest to lowest probability of victory:

Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Georgia
New Jersey
California
Montana
Tennessee
New York
Minnesota
North Dakota
Utah
Illinois
Arkansas
Missouri
Massachusetts
Connecticut
Delaware
Oklahoma

I don't know why Georgia is so high.. That's deep south Huckleberry country.

[davver]

The Rocky Mountain states.

[celticsman7]

I don't know when Rhode Island's primary is but since it's such a small state I bet we could do farely well there.

[killatop]

GA is polling at 12% and we've been working pretty hard. We may not be able to get first but a lot of Christians are realizing Huckulbust is a fraud. I just tell them about Judicial Watch putting at 6th in most corrupt politicians and that pretty much seals it. Especially when they realize it's not biased when I tell them Hitlery is top dog and Obama is 8th. With the goon at 5th. I just ask them if that's what they really want, more corruption?

[libertythor]

I don't know why Georgia is so high.. That's deep south Huckleberry country.

Georgia is also the state where Harry Brown managed to get 2% of the popular vote in 2000 for the Presidency. In all other states he only got around .5% of the vote. There is a strong libertarian base in Georgia.

[jk8583]

montana and alaska i think are the top 2 best chances. north dakota too. someone said he will be there. i highly doubt any others will stop by. california will probably get the most attention from the others

[teshuah]

seeing as He's done well in the caucus states, i would think he would have a pretty good chance here in Minnesota - but we need a LOT more organization in the next few days, Minnesota

If he's stopping in Fargo I'm sure there's a good chance he's stopping in Mpls on Feb 4th too. Minnesota headquarters is doing a massive campaign calling right now. Just wish we had more ability to reach rural Minnesota farmers

[SRRP77]

Pretty good guesses, we got a shot in every state. Here's my ranking from highest to lowest probability of victory:

Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
edit: forgot Colorado :)
Georgia
New Jersey
California
Montana
Tennessee
New York
Minnesota
North Dakota
Utah
Illinois
Arkansas
Missouri
Massachusetts
Connecticut
Delaware
Oklahoma

I think Paul could do really well in NJ. I know a lot of on the fence voters- anyone have any anti-war Paul material I could print and give out?

[skgai]

We need to win Alaska. Ron Paul led a December poll there.

Other strongsuits:

Montana, Rand Paul campaigning means the campaign is taking notice
Tennessee, ditto
Georgia, double digits in polls. Can we maintain and raise?
North Dakota: The Great Plains appear to be good to Ron Paul
Minnesota: Only person campaigning there

Possibles:
Colorado: Was at 4% in poll this week, but Great Plains state.
Alabama: Big endorsement, but at 3% in poll this week.
Oklahoma: At 6% in poll this week.
Illinois: Several campaign offices.
Missouri: Look like a Huckabee state, but next to 10% Iowa.

Not looking good:
Arizona: McCain's state
Massachusetts: Romney's state
Utah: Mormons
Arkansas: Huckabee's state
New York: Giuliani's state, winner-take-all
New Jersey: Winner-take-all
California: Too big!
Connecticut: Paul isn't doing well on the East Coast.
Delaware
West Virginia: Caucuses didn't go well.

[Matt Collins]

TN is ripe for Ron!

[AlbemarleNC0003]

I don't know why Georgia is so high.. That's deep south Huckleberry country.

Confederate flag/states' rights issues are huge in GA.

[Phunbaba]

In Colorado, east of the mountains, it's a pretty fair split between the canidates. Most are open to RP.

However, west of the mountains are FULL of mormoms. I expect Romney to take CO, with Ron in 2nd or 3rd.

[Gadsden Flag]

Today, in Missouri, I handed out about 250 RP slim jims on my college campus. Tomorrow, I'm going to try to do another batch.

[stevedasbach]

GA is polling at 12% and we've been working pretty hard. We may not be able to get first but a lot of Christians are realizing Huckulbust is a fraud. I just tell them about Judicial Watch putting at 6th in most corrupt politicians and that pretty much seals it. Especially when they realize it's not biased when I tell them Hitlery is top dog and Obama is 8th. With the goon at 5th. I just ask them if that's what they really want, more corruption?

One poll at 12%, but another at 5%. Don't make the mistake of assuming that the best poll is the correct one.

[life_boy]

One poll at 12%, but another at 5%. Don't make the mistake of assuming that the best poll is the correct one.

This is very, very true. Georgia will have a lot of voters, 640,000 by my estimate (based on 2000 primary numbers). 41,100 votes for RP is only 6.8%. We had 411 Precinct Leaders last night. Those guys GOTV. The media is no help. This is a person to person campaign. But it's still an enormous uphill battle.

Voter turnout may very well determine how strong RP shows.

[Bilgefisher]

In Colorado, east of the mountains, it's a pretty fair split between the canidates. Most are open to RP.

However, west of the mountains are FULL of mormoms. I expect Romney to take CO, with Ron in 2nd or 3rd.

Unfortunately I have to agree with this sentiment. Sad really that 95% of Mormons in Nevada voted based on religion.

[nate895]

In Colorado, east of the mountains, it's a pretty fair split between the canidates. Most are open to RP.

However, west of the mountains are FULL of mormoms. I expect Romney to take CO, with Ron in 2nd or 3rd.

However, if you can edge out Romney by more than 3% east of the mountains, and lose by 10% on the other side, you could win. East of the mountains (which I assume includes Denver and Colorado Springs) is where most of the population lives. This is how Bush won Ohio in 2004, he won by enough in Cincinnati and Columbus suburbs to offset the Kayahoga County (Cleveland) Kerry votes. Plus, if the precinct leader system works (gets 100:1 votes) we would get 50%+ votes in Colorado with a 65,000 voter turnout, probably win if <100,000, which is possible.

[The Machine]

We need to win Alaska. Ron Paul led a December poll there.

Other strongsuits:

Montana, Rand Paul campaigning means the campaign is taking notice
Tennessee, ditto
Georgia, double digits in polls. Can we maintain and raise?
North Dakota: The Great Plains appear to be good to Ron Paul
Minnesota: Only person campaigning there

Possibles:
Colorado: Was at 4% in poll this week, but Great Plains state.
Alabama: Big endorsement, but at 3% in poll this week.
Oklahoma: At 6% in poll this week.
Illinois: Several campaign offices.
Missouri: Look like a Huckabee state, but next to 10% Iowa.

Not looking good:
Arizona: McCain's state
Massachusetts: Romney's state
Utah: Mormons
Arkansas: Huckabee's state
New York: Giuliani's state, winner-take-all
New Jersey: Winner-take-all
California: Too big!
Connecticut: Paul isn't doing well on the East Coast.
Delaware
West Virginia: Caucuses didn't go well.

WV didn't have caucuses in the literal sense. Each county allowed registered Republican voters to vote online or at a County Convention--if there was one. This process chose the delegates going to the State GOP Convention. Last check showed that there are approximately 25% uncommited delegates. The Thompson, Ghouliani, Hunter, and Keyes delegates are still up for grabs. On the commited side, Romney is in the lead with Paul second; unless things changed since the last time I looked.

I heard that Ron Paul is the only candidate that will be there in person giving a speech. I think if Ron hits a home run on his speech, he could very possibly take all 18 delegates. WV has a winner take all convention. Even if Ron doesn't win the delegates at the convention, he could still win the remaining delegates during the--I think it's May--primary, which is open to all registered Republicans.

I don't know why things had to be so convoluted in the WV GOP race, but it is what it is. Let's hope WV is a "sleeper" state!

[SophisticatedFarmGirl]

CA is not winner take all this year. Every district gets 3 delegates. Winner of district gets the delegates.

[Joby]

CA is not winner take all this year. Every district gets 3 delegates. Winner of district gets the delegates.

Exactly....

I hope we've hit up SF, LA, Berkeley, and the emerald triangle, aka were neocons are a rare breed..

...along with GOP strongholds like San Diego and Orange County, of course.