chiplitfam
01-28-2008, 06:54 PM
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Ron Paul's Chances on February 5th
Even though barely 5% of the delegates to the Republican national convention have been determined, the mainstream media has tried to frame it as a McCain vs. Romney contest, with Huckabee and Giuliani holding on, and Ron Paul trailing the field. This despite the fact that Ron Paul has significantly out-polled Giuliani at the ballot box, that his campaign is in much better financial shape than Huckabee's, that unlike the other candidates he has tens of thousands of grassroots volunteers, and that he already has two second places finishes, in Nevada and Louisiana.
Everything that has happened so far is just a warm up, compared to the 21-state Super Tuesday showdown on February 5th. As the voters begin to pay more attention to the race, Ron Paul's volunteer army will have to work hard to counteract the mainstream media spin, but as the voters take a closer look at the remaining candidates, Ron Paul will look better and better to them. Why settle for a quasi-conservative like McCain, Romney, Huckabee, or Giuliani, when you can vote for the real thing in Ron Paul? This contrast is even more striking with the recent departure of Fred Thompson from the race.
A better informed electorate works in Ron Paul's favor. The recent focus on our struggling economy does too. Ron Paul's recent endorsements from Don Luskin and Peter Schiff, two high profile financial advisers who have also joined his campaign, strengthens his credibility on economic matters with undecided voters. Strong showings in the Hawaii and Maine caucuses, which the grassroots network is working toward behind the scenes, will provide another boost. Even if Ron Paul can't top his current poll numbers in Florida, he may still gain from the primary results, if either Giuliani or Huckabee call it quits afterward.
Throw in a new money bomb on February 1st, and Ron Paul could have some serious momentum going into Super Tuesday. But even with a well-funded campaign and a well-staffed volunteer ground team, Ron Paul will have to pick his battles on February 5th for maximum impact. Where to focus the campaign's resources and volunteer energy is an important question, and one worthy of serious thought. The answers will depend on where the message of freedom might best be received, where the volunteer support is already strong, and where the delegate allocation rules provide the maximum payoff.
So far, the campaign has started airing radio ads in the Super Tuesday states of Alabama, California, Colorado, Georgia and North Dakota. Alabama makes a lot of sense -- they have an open primary, Ron Paul has fared well in straw polls there, and it is winner-take-all per district, meaning a focused effort could produce delegates, even without a statewide win. California has similar delegate selection rules, over 10,000 Meetup volunteers in over 100 groups, and has been a major source of campaign funding.
Colorado features a low-turnout caucus (think Nevada and Louisiana), a libertarian leaning culture, and even more Meetup members per capita than California. Ron Paul is polling in double digits already in Georgia, which has an open primary and is winner-take-all per district. North Dakota may seem an unlikely choice, but has a low-turnout caucus, is getting negligible attention from other campaigns, and awards 26 delegates to the statewide winner.
What other states make the most sense to focus on? The list should start with Minnesota, which features an open caucus, and has a history of voting for independent candidates like former governor Jesse Ventura. Tennessee also deserves special attention, with Thompson out of the race. The Volunteer State boasts over 3,000 Meetup volunteers, nearly one for every 2,000 residents, among the highest rates in the nation. Tennessee holds an open primary and awards delegates proportionately per district. Massachusetts has similar rules, and may deserve consideration, even though it is Mitt Romney's most recent home state.
What other states hold promise for the best results for Ron Paul on February 5th? Looking at Meetup volunteers per capita, Montana and Alaska are at the very top of the list, ahead of even Tennessee. Alaska holds a low-turnout caucus, and Montana runs a convention system similar to Wyoming's, but with greater opportunities for new activists to get involved. West Virginia's state convention has already been targeted by the Ron Paul Revolution, and may report the day's first positive results, making ABC's coverage plan look as biased as Fox News on a bad day.
What states does that leave out? Hopefully none of them, as precinct leaders and Meetup volunteers nationwide give Ron Paul an unmatched advantage in what is essentially a national primary day. The other states holding primaries or caucuses on February 5th are Arizona, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, and Utah. Of these, Arkansas, Illinois, and Oklahoma offer the best odds of gaining delegates, since the other states are winner-take-all. Illinois features direct delegate elections, which could make things interesting.
Good luck to all Ron Paul supporters in the February 5th states, and keep up the great work. Here's hoping that Florida, Hawaii, and Maine make us proud as well.
http://paul4prez.blogspot.com/2008/01/ron-pauls-chances-on-february-5th.html
Ron Paul's Chances on February 5th
Even though barely 5% of the delegates to the Republican national convention have been determined, the mainstream media has tried to frame it as a McCain vs. Romney contest, with Huckabee and Giuliani holding on, and Ron Paul trailing the field. This despite the fact that Ron Paul has significantly out-polled Giuliani at the ballot box, that his campaign is in much better financial shape than Huckabee's, that unlike the other candidates he has tens of thousands of grassroots volunteers, and that he already has two second places finishes, in Nevada and Louisiana.
Everything that has happened so far is just a warm up, compared to the 21-state Super Tuesday showdown on February 5th. As the voters begin to pay more attention to the race, Ron Paul's volunteer army will have to work hard to counteract the mainstream media spin, but as the voters take a closer look at the remaining candidates, Ron Paul will look better and better to them. Why settle for a quasi-conservative like McCain, Romney, Huckabee, or Giuliani, when you can vote for the real thing in Ron Paul? This contrast is even more striking with the recent departure of Fred Thompson from the race.
A better informed electorate works in Ron Paul's favor. The recent focus on our struggling economy does too. Ron Paul's recent endorsements from Don Luskin and Peter Schiff, two high profile financial advisers who have also joined his campaign, strengthens his credibility on economic matters with undecided voters. Strong showings in the Hawaii and Maine caucuses, which the grassroots network is working toward behind the scenes, will provide another boost. Even if Ron Paul can't top his current poll numbers in Florida, he may still gain from the primary results, if either Giuliani or Huckabee call it quits afterward.
Throw in a new money bomb on February 1st, and Ron Paul could have some serious momentum going into Super Tuesday. But even with a well-funded campaign and a well-staffed volunteer ground team, Ron Paul will have to pick his battles on February 5th for maximum impact. Where to focus the campaign's resources and volunteer energy is an important question, and one worthy of serious thought. The answers will depend on where the message of freedom might best be received, where the volunteer support is already strong, and where the delegate allocation rules provide the maximum payoff.
So far, the campaign has started airing radio ads in the Super Tuesday states of Alabama, California, Colorado, Georgia and North Dakota. Alabama makes a lot of sense -- they have an open primary, Ron Paul has fared well in straw polls there, and it is winner-take-all per district, meaning a focused effort could produce delegates, even without a statewide win. California has similar delegate selection rules, over 10,000 Meetup volunteers in over 100 groups, and has been a major source of campaign funding.
Colorado features a low-turnout caucus (think Nevada and Louisiana), a libertarian leaning culture, and even more Meetup members per capita than California. Ron Paul is polling in double digits already in Georgia, which has an open primary and is winner-take-all per district. North Dakota may seem an unlikely choice, but has a low-turnout caucus, is getting negligible attention from other campaigns, and awards 26 delegates to the statewide winner.
What other states make the most sense to focus on? The list should start with Minnesota, which features an open caucus, and has a history of voting for independent candidates like former governor Jesse Ventura. Tennessee also deserves special attention, with Thompson out of the race. The Volunteer State boasts over 3,000 Meetup volunteers, nearly one for every 2,000 residents, among the highest rates in the nation. Tennessee holds an open primary and awards delegates proportionately per district. Massachusetts has similar rules, and may deserve consideration, even though it is Mitt Romney's most recent home state.
What other states hold promise for the best results for Ron Paul on February 5th? Looking at Meetup volunteers per capita, Montana and Alaska are at the very top of the list, ahead of even Tennessee. Alaska holds a low-turnout caucus, and Montana runs a convention system similar to Wyoming's, but with greater opportunities for new activists to get involved. West Virginia's state convention has already been targeted by the Ron Paul Revolution, and may report the day's first positive results, making ABC's coverage plan look as biased as Fox News on a bad day.
What states does that leave out? Hopefully none of them, as precinct leaders and Meetup volunteers nationwide give Ron Paul an unmatched advantage in what is essentially a national primary day. The other states holding primaries or caucuses on February 5th are Arizona, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, and Utah. Of these, Arkansas, Illinois, and Oklahoma offer the best odds of gaining delegates, since the other states are winner-take-all. Illinois features direct delegate elections, which could make things interesting.
Good luck to all Ron Paul supporters in the February 5th states, and keep up the great work. Here's hoping that Florida, Hawaii, and Maine make us proud as well.
http://paul4prez.blogspot.com/2008/01/ron-pauls-chances-on-february-5th.html