**Deligate counting** hard evidence Paul has a chance

[PledgeForPaul]

from http://www.redtelegram.com/2008/01/28/to-review/

This scenario will require a lot of work by the campaign and grassroots, but is not impossible:

http://www.redtelegram.com/how%20paul%20could%20win.JPG

[PledgeForPaul]

From an older post on redtelegram:


Using my Ron Paul projected results model (which so far has been more accurate then all of the polling posted on realclearpolitics), I have draw up a delegate route that could give Paul a chance at the GOP nomination. First, 2 assumptions:

1. Giuliani and Huckabee will give up shortly after super Tuesday. The race will be between McCain, Romney, and Paul. It would be great for Ron if Giuliani or Huckabee has a strong showing on super Tuesday (keeping the field divided), but I am going to assume they will both drop out shortly after super Tuesday.

2. Open delegates (especially former Huckabee delegates) will move towards Paul or McCain, but not Romney. This makes McCain Ron’s top target. The campaign likely recognizes this as well, being that Paul’s GOP Florida debate question was crafted to make McCain look like an idiot.

Aside from those assumptions, Paul needs most of these things to happen:

1. McCain needs to lose at least 3 of the 4: Florida, New York, New Jersey, and California. California will be the toughest, the other three are all very close.

2. Paul needs to win at least 8 or 9 or these 10 states: Alaska (possible), DC (possible), Colorado(very tough), North Dakota (tough), Texas (possible), Idaho (tough), Oregon (possible), New Mexico (possible), and Tennessee (tough). Of these, super Tuesday includes Alaska and Colorado. Paul needs a strong showing on super Tuesday with at least 1 other first place finish and at least 3 2nd place finishes in non winner takes all states.

3. Paul needs a first place in either Virginia, Wisconsin, or Indiana (all very tough for him). Depending on super Tuesday he may need to win in two of these states to have a chance.

[Xenophage]

Interesting hypothetical situation.

In any case, Ron Paul is winning Alaska.

[JimInNY]

So let's just do it.

[nate895]

What about Washington?

We're doing good up here. I think this is an interesting scenario, and it's not including possible wins elsewhere. Maryland, for instance, since we have a congressional candidate in each district. If we won Virginia, Maryland, and DC on the same day, plus 2-10 wins and seconds on Super Tuesday, we're in great shape. If we managed to pull off a victory in Maine, I say 10 firsts or seconds on Super Tuesday is within the realm of possibility (GA, TN, AL, ND, WV, CO, OK, AK, MT, and MN).

[Mystile]

are we really expecting to win that many states?

[nate895]

are we really expecting to win that many states?

What's the other option?

Expect to lose everything, and I'm not good with that. We can do it in caucus states, we just have to push.

[No1ButPaul08]

California's 173 delegates are not winner take all. It's 3 per congressional distict and there are 53 districts. So 159 of the 173 are district by district.

[Joseph Hart]

Im a Delegate! Wootsauce!

[jake]

Joesph Hart is a wootsauce Republican!!

[Carole]

West Virginia is strong for Paul and Romney. McCain not so much. From what I have read.

[mexicanpizza]

CA is not winner take all.

[RPsupporterAtHeart]

Why did he change this to say, BEFORE NH and Iowa, when he clearly stated earlier that the model was built AFTER those two states?

[PledgeForPaul]

Why did he change this to say, BEFORE NH and Iowa, when he clearly stated earlier that the model was built AFTER those two states?

It is a she - but I'm not sure either.

[Maverick]

So...second place to McCain in delegates is good how?

Also, I wish I could be as optimistic about RP winning all of the delegates in Texas but I can't. He won't get all 140. There's just too many damned Neocons here.

[pinkmandy]

Wootsauce. Lmao.

Hell yeah we are still in! Now go donate- we are having a little State of the Union minibomb right now! Need $12k!!!!

[PledgeForPaul]

So...second place to McCain in delegates is good how?

Also, I wish I could be as optimistic about RP winning all of the delegates in Texas but I can't. He won't get all 140. There's just too many damned Neocons here.

Because there are over 500 delegates open, and many may move to RP if he is the late game rising star. Texas is a winner take all state so all 140 will go to 1 person.

I really hope New York and New Jersey don't go to McCain.

[transistor]

don't mean to be a downer, but don't expect to do well in SD. i think there's about 5 people in the state who have even heard of RP.