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01-28-2008, 02:36 PM
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Could Ron Paul win as a Third Party Candidate? (http://digg.com/2008_us_elections/Could_Ron_Paul_win_as_a_Third_Party_Candidate_Mayb e)
As a Ron Paul supporter, I have to walk a fine line between optimism and realism.
The optimist in me says that this nomination cycle isn’t over by a longshot, and that due to campaign funding, Ron can afford to let the other campaigns spend themselves out, and he’ll get a fair shake once we are down to three candidates. Huckabee and Giuliani are all but done. Neither of them will be around after Super Tuesday. That’ll leave Romney, McCaine, and my guy…
The realist in me says that the media blackout, calculated and effective, is working. While the other candidates get plenty of free TV exposure courtesy of the mainstream media, my guy is largely relegated to coverage my College newspapers, bloggers, and an occasional Op-Ed piece contributed by readers.
As much as I want to stay upbeat, I recognize that Dr. Paul is probably not going to win the Republican nomination. I think he’ll be in the race until the end, but it’s not going to be enough.
So I sit here wondering how this is all going to go down, and I think I’ve figured it out. Whenever he’s been asked about it, on those few occasions where the media pretends he actually exists, he has made statements to the effect that he isn’t planning a third party run. He has all but ruled it out.
But he’s never ruled it out completely…
Now, I’m prepared to take the good doctor at his word, because he is above all things, an honest man. I believe sincerely that his plan was to win the Republican nomination, and that any provocative statements about a third party candidacy would have ruined even the remote possibility of that to occur. That said, I would have to be a complete idiot not to think that there have been some very serious discussions within the campaign about a third party bid as a “Plan B.”
What are the problems with a third party run? There are three main obstacles: Ballot Access, Debate Rules, and Winner-take-All.
Ballot Access
The first hurdle, obviously, is ballot access. The Democratic and Republican candidates are guaranteed a place on the ballots, but third parties must clear a number of additional hurdles, such as paying registration fees, and meeting petition requirements.
Ron Paul, by virtue of his phenomenal ability to raise funds, and his wide-spread grassroots support, should be able to handle these issues with relative ease.
Debate Rules
There are two notable rules that essentially lock third party candidates out of the debate process. The first is that a third party candidate must appear on enough state ballots that he could mathematically win an Electoral College majority. The second, and more nefarious, is that the candidate must be polling at 15% in public opinion polls prior to the debates.
I have no doubt that Ron Paul, with his rabid support organization, could get on every State ballot in the country. They have already managed to do so for the primary ballots, and would easily be able to do so for the general election in November.
I also think that it is not inconceivable that he could muster 15% in opinion polling, assuming that the Democratic and Republican nomination process had whittled away all of the other contenders, that he could hold onto the approximate 10% of Republicans that he currently attracts, and that the established third parties (Libertarian Party, Constitution Party, and Reform Party) threw their support behind him, which is, to my mind, a very reasonable assumption.
Winner-take-All
Obviously, Winner-take-All (or Plurality-take-All) is another factor that discourages the possibilities of a successful third party bid. Under our system, a third party candidate could take 2nd in the popular vote in all 50 States, and would not receive a single Electoral College delegate. Proportional representation would mitigate this, but we haven’t got that, so there’s no point in elaborating. In order for a third party candidate to win, he would have to win States outright… 2nd place doesn’t cut it.
So those are the primary challenges that face anyone hoping to mount a third party bid for the Presidency.
Of the three, obviously, Ballot Access is the easiest one to address. Ron Paul’s supporters have already successfully run this gauntlet to get him on all of the Primary ballots, and it wouldn’t be very difficult to do so again. All it takes is effort and a sufficient number of supporters, and I think we’ve demonstrated that we have what it takes to make that happen.
Meeting the 15% debate threshold is a bit trickier, though, not impossible. In fact, I think that’s what Ron Paul has really been working toward throughout the Republican nomination cycle. The longer he stays in the nomination race, and the more debates he participates in, the better his chances. Even though the debate moderators largely ignore him, his presence alone, and his answers during the brief moments where he gets to speak generate controversy and interest.
The disastrous economy is actually a huge boon for Ron Paul. Not only had he been predicting this recession, but his understanding of economics and monetary policy vastly outclasses any other candidate from either party. As the economy worsens, Paul’s message may very well start to strike a chord with the American mainstream.
Remember, in 1992 Ross Perot managed to climb from a 7% polling rate prior to the debates, to 19% in the general election. That’s a multiplier of over 2.5. If Ron Paul could muster the 15% necessary to participate in the debates as a third party, and get the same kind of conversion rate as Perot managed heading into the general election, he would garner 37.5% of the vote in the general election… In a three-way race, he’d only need 34% to win.
With the right electoral math, he’d have a very real possibility of mounting the first successful third party run for President of the United States
Could Ron Paul win as a Third Party Candidate? (http://digg.com/2008_us_elections/Could_Ron_Paul_win_as_a_Third_Party_Candidate_Mayb e)
As a Ron Paul supporter, I have to walk a fine line between optimism and realism.
The optimist in me says that this nomination cycle isn’t over by a longshot, and that due to campaign funding, Ron can afford to let the other campaigns spend themselves out, and he’ll get a fair shake once we are down to three candidates. Huckabee and Giuliani are all but done. Neither of them will be around after Super Tuesday. That’ll leave Romney, McCaine, and my guy…
The realist in me says that the media blackout, calculated and effective, is working. While the other candidates get plenty of free TV exposure courtesy of the mainstream media, my guy is largely relegated to coverage my College newspapers, bloggers, and an occasional Op-Ed piece contributed by readers.
As much as I want to stay upbeat, I recognize that Dr. Paul is probably not going to win the Republican nomination. I think he’ll be in the race until the end, but it’s not going to be enough.
So I sit here wondering how this is all going to go down, and I think I’ve figured it out. Whenever he’s been asked about it, on those few occasions where the media pretends he actually exists, he has made statements to the effect that he isn’t planning a third party run. He has all but ruled it out.
But he’s never ruled it out completely…
Now, I’m prepared to take the good doctor at his word, because he is above all things, an honest man. I believe sincerely that his plan was to win the Republican nomination, and that any provocative statements about a third party candidacy would have ruined even the remote possibility of that to occur. That said, I would have to be a complete idiot not to think that there have been some very serious discussions within the campaign about a third party bid as a “Plan B.”
What are the problems with a third party run? There are three main obstacles: Ballot Access, Debate Rules, and Winner-take-All.
Ballot Access
The first hurdle, obviously, is ballot access. The Democratic and Republican candidates are guaranteed a place on the ballots, but third parties must clear a number of additional hurdles, such as paying registration fees, and meeting petition requirements.
Ron Paul, by virtue of his phenomenal ability to raise funds, and his wide-spread grassroots support, should be able to handle these issues with relative ease.
Debate Rules
There are two notable rules that essentially lock third party candidates out of the debate process. The first is that a third party candidate must appear on enough state ballots that he could mathematically win an Electoral College majority. The second, and more nefarious, is that the candidate must be polling at 15% in public opinion polls prior to the debates.
I have no doubt that Ron Paul, with his rabid support organization, could get on every State ballot in the country. They have already managed to do so for the primary ballots, and would easily be able to do so for the general election in November.
I also think that it is not inconceivable that he could muster 15% in opinion polling, assuming that the Democratic and Republican nomination process had whittled away all of the other contenders, that he could hold onto the approximate 10% of Republicans that he currently attracts, and that the established third parties (Libertarian Party, Constitution Party, and Reform Party) threw their support behind him, which is, to my mind, a very reasonable assumption.
Winner-take-All
Obviously, Winner-take-All (or Plurality-take-All) is another factor that discourages the possibilities of a successful third party bid. Under our system, a third party candidate could take 2nd in the popular vote in all 50 States, and would not receive a single Electoral College delegate. Proportional representation would mitigate this, but we haven’t got that, so there’s no point in elaborating. In order for a third party candidate to win, he would have to win States outright… 2nd place doesn’t cut it.
So those are the primary challenges that face anyone hoping to mount a third party bid for the Presidency.
Of the three, obviously, Ballot Access is the easiest one to address. Ron Paul’s supporters have already successfully run this gauntlet to get him on all of the Primary ballots, and it wouldn’t be very difficult to do so again. All it takes is effort and a sufficient number of supporters, and I think we’ve demonstrated that we have what it takes to make that happen.
Meeting the 15% debate threshold is a bit trickier, though, not impossible. In fact, I think that’s what Ron Paul has really been working toward throughout the Republican nomination cycle. The longer he stays in the nomination race, and the more debates he participates in, the better his chances. Even though the debate moderators largely ignore him, his presence alone, and his answers during the brief moments where he gets to speak generate controversy and interest.
The disastrous economy is actually a huge boon for Ron Paul. Not only had he been predicting this recession, but his understanding of economics and monetary policy vastly outclasses any other candidate from either party. As the economy worsens, Paul’s message may very well start to strike a chord with the American mainstream.
Remember, in 1992 Ross Perot managed to climb from a 7% polling rate prior to the debates, to 19% in the general election. That’s a multiplier of over 2.5. If Ron Paul could muster the 15% necessary to participate in the debates as a third party, and get the same kind of conversion rate as Perot managed heading into the general election, he would garner 37.5% of the vote in the general election… In a three-way race, he’d only need 34% to win.
With the right electoral math, he’d have a very real possibility of mounting the first successful third party run for President of the United States