Bradley in DC
01-28-2008, 08:29 AM
http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2261.pdf
THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY
OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS
THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD
During the past month, there has been a complete reordering of candidate preferences among Republicans likely to vote in California's February 5th primary election. Four weeks ago, Rudy Giuliani stood atop the field at 25%, followed by Mike Huckabee at 17%.
Now, John McCain, who was in fourth position in December, has vaulted to first place with 22%, just ahead of Mitt Romney, who is now in second place, with 18%.
Support for Giuliani has plummeted to 11% in the current poll, putting him in a tie with Huckabee for third place, just ahead of Fred Thompson (9%) and Ron Paul (7%).
The proportion of GOP voters who are undecided has grown to 21% and is nearly equivalent to that of frontrunner McCain.
These are the findings from the latest Field Poll of 377 likely voters in California's February 5th Republican primary for President.
The Field Poll #2261
Wednesday, January 23, 2008 Page 2
Table 1
Trend of voter preferences in the California Republican primary for president
(among likely voters in the CA Republican primary)
Mid-
January
2008 December2007 October2007 August 2007 March 2007
John McCain 22% 12% 12% 9% 24%
Mitt Romney 18 15 13 17 7
Rudy Giuliani 11 25 25 35 37
Mike Huckabee 11 17 4 1 3
Fred Thompson 9 6 12 13 8
Ron Paul 7 3 4 1 1
Other 1 4 3 4 5
Undecided 21 18 22 20 15
Note: The March 2007 survey included the names of Tommy Thompson Newt Gingrich and Chuck Hagel For comparative purposes
voters favoring these candidates were allocated to their second choice preferences.
Republican sub-group preferences
McCain leads Romney three to one (27% to 9%) among Republicans who describe themselves as
moderately conservative, moderate or liberal. By contrast, strong conservatives, who constitute
about half of the likely GOP electorate, favor Romney over McCain 26% to 16%.
Huckabee leads among those GOP voters who are born-again Christians, although his support
among this segment has declined from 31% in December to 20% in the current poll.
While McCain and Romney draw about equally from GOP voters with household incomes of
$80,000 or more, the Arizona Senator has an edge over Romney and Huckabee among those who
make less than $80,000.
McCain also holds an advantage among voters age 50 and older, while younger voters are about
evenly split between himself and Romney.
There are no significant differences in preferences by gender or between Northern and Southern
California Republicans.
The Field Poll #2261
Wednesday, January 23, 2008 Page 3
Table 2
Likely voter preferences in the California Republican
primary for president – by subgroup
McCain Romney Giuliani Huckabee Thompson Paul Other/ Undecided
Statewide 22% 18 11 11 9 7 22
Political ideology
(.51) Strongly
conservative 16% 26 14 14 11 4 15
(.49) Moderately
conservative/
moderate/liberal 27% 9 8 8 8 9 31
Born-again Christian
(.31) Yes 17% 17 14 20 9 6 17
(.69) No 25% 18 10 7 9 7 24
Region
(.59) Southern California 22% 18 12 12 9 6 21
(.41) Northern California 22% 17 10 10 10 8 23
Gender
(.51) Male 22% 18 13 11 10 7 19
(.49) Female 21% 18 9 11 9 6 26
Age
(.40) 18-49 18% 19 11 14 4 6 28
(.61) 50 or older 24% 16 11 9 13 7 20
Household income
(.45) Less than $80,000 23% 12 12 15 8 6 24
(.55) $80,000 or more 22% 20 12 10 10 7 19
Voting method
(.51) Precinct voter 24% 18 15 12 5 5 21
(.49) Mail ballot voter 19% 18 7 9 14 8 25
* Small sample base.
Thompson voters would prefer Romney and Giuliani over McCain
There has been some speculation that Thompson is considering withdrawing from the nomination
race. The current survey asked his supporters who their second choice preferences would be. The
results indicate that Romney would be the chief beneficiary in California if Thompson were to
withdraw, with 30% of Thompson supporters favoring him, followed by Giuliani at 20%, McCain at
11%, Huckabee at 8% and 31% undecided.
The Field Poll #2261
Wednesday, January 23, 2008 Page 4
Favorability ratings
Large majorities of the GOP rank-and-file, on the order of about three to one, have favorable
impressions of McCain and Romney. While Giuliani and Huckabee are also viewed positively,
they hold narrower five to three favorability ratios.
Table 3
Image ratings of the four leading GOP candidates for President
(among likely voters in the CA Republican primary)
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
McCain 68% 22 10
Romney 59% 23 18
Giuliani 54% 31 15
Huckabee 51% 26 23
Appraisal of personal attributes
McCain, who holds a narrow lead in overall preferences, rates higher than the other candidates in
respect to "having the right experience," with 36% of voters choosing him on this attribute,
followed by Romney (21%).
McCain also holds an advantage as the candidate with the best chance of winning the November
general election and being able to unite the U.S.
Romney (27%) and McCain (24%) are rated above the others in respect to being the candidate who
shares your values.
Romney outscores McCain (32% to 20%) and the others as being the candidate that best represents
what the Republican party stands for. Romney also holds a smaller advantage as the candidate who
best represents change.
The Field Poll #2261
Wednesday, January 23, 2008 Page 5
Table 4
Comparing voter perceptions of the four leading GOP candidates on six personal attributes
(among likely voters in the CA Republican primary)
McCain Romney Giuliani HuckabeeOther/None Don't know
Has the right experience 36% 21 21 4 8 10
Has the best chance of winning the
November general election 32% 20 18 7 6 17
Will be able to unite the U.S. 29% 20 20 5 14 12
Shares your values 24% 27 12 15 12 10
Best represents change 18% 23 16 14 12 17
Best represents what the Republican
Party stands for 20% 32 10 13 10 15
Most important issues to GOP primary voters
The issue that the largest proportion of GOP voters rates as being most important to them in
deciding whom to support for president is illegal immigration (40%). Next in order of importance
among Republican's likely to vote on February 5th is the terrorist threat (37%), followed by the war
in Iraq (33%) and jobs/the economy (33%).
Three other issues are rated by somewhat smaller proportions as being most important – foreign
policy (25%), taxes (24%), and health care (18%).
Table 5
Matters rated among "the most important" issues to Republican
primary voters when deciding whom to support for President
(among likely voters in the CA Republican primary)
Among the
most
important
Important,
but not the
most
important Not important
Illegal immigration 40% 48 11
The terrorist threat 37% 51 12
The war in Iraq 33% 59 8
Jobs and the economy 33% 60 7
Foreign policy 25% 66 8
Taxes 24% 68 8
Health care 18% 60 22
Differences between the sum of percentages for each item and 100% equals proportion with no opinion.
– 30 –
The Field Poll #2261
Wednesday, January 23, 2008 Page 6
Information About The Survey
Sample Details
The findings in this report are based on a random sample survey of 1,033 registered voters in California,
including 377 voters deemed likely to vote in the Republican primary election. The overall sample was
divided into two random subsamples on some of the survey questions.
Interviewing was conducted by telephone in English and Spanish January 14-20, 2008. Up to six attempts
were made to reach and interview each randomly selected voter on different days and times of day during the
interviewing period.
The sample was developed from telephone listings of individual voters selected at random from a statewide
list of registered voters in California. For this survey, the sample of registered Republicans was augmented
to increase the number of interviews conducted among likely GOP voters in the February 5th primary. Once
a voter’s name and telephone number has been selected, interviews are attempted only with the specified
voter. Interviews can be conducted on either the voter’s landline or cell phone, depending on the source of
the telephone listing from the voter file. After the completion of interviewing, the overall sample was
weighted to Field Poll estimates of the demographic and regional characteristics of the state’s registered
voter population.
Sampling error estimates applicable to any probability-based survey depend on sample size. The maximum
sampling error for results based on the overall sample of 377 likely GOP voters is +/- 5.2 percentage points.
The maximum sampling error is based on percentages in the middle of the sampling distribution (percentages
around 50%). Percentages at either end of the distribution (percentages around 10% or around 90%) have a
smaller margin of error. While there are other potential sources of error in surveys besides sampling error,
the overall design and execution of the survey minimized the potential for these other sources of error. The
maximum sampling error will be larger for subgroups of the overall sample.
Questions Asked
(IF HAVE NOT ALREADY VOTED, ASK:)
I am going to read the names of some Republicans who are running for the Republican presidential nomination this
year. For each, please tell me whether there would be a good chance, some chance or no chance that you would vote
for that person in California’s presidential primary election. You may name as many or as few persons as you like as
people you would be inclined to vote for. (NAMES AND TITLES OF CANDIDATES READ IN RANDOM ORDER) I am
going to read back the names of the candidates you said you would have at least some chance of voting for.
(NAMES OF CANDIDATES READ BACK) Of these persons, who would be your first choice if the California
Republican primary election for President were being held today? (IF FIRST CHOICE GIVEN) Who would be
your second choice?
(IF ALREADY VOTED, ASK:)
For whom did you vote in the Republican presidential primary election? (NAMES READ IN RANDOM ORDER)
(ASKED OF A RANDOM SUBSAMPLE OF REPUBLICANS)
Which of the four leading Republican candidates do you think (PERSONAL ATTRIBUTES READ IN RANDOM
ORDER) – Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, John McCain or Mitt Romney? (SEE RELEASE FOR ITEMS READ)
When considering this year's election for President, how important (are) (were) the candidates' position on
each of the following issues to you in deciding whom to support? (ISSUES READ IN RANDOM ORDER) (Is)
(Was) this the most important issue, an important issue but not the most important issue, or not an important
issue in your vote for President? (SEE RELEASE FOR ISSUES READ)
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (NAME)? (SEE RELEASE FOR CANDIDATES READ)
Thompson’s Withdrawal Makes Republican Presidential Contest Closer in California
By Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field
The withdrawal of Fred Thompson from the Republican presidential race yesterday tightens up the already close California Republican primary election. When voters who previously supported Thompson are allocated to the other candidates based on these voters' second choice preferences, John McCain's lead over Mitt Romney declines to two percentage points, 23% to 21%. In this setting, Rudy Giuliani receives 13% of the preferences, Mike Huckabee 12%, Ron Paul 7%, 1% for other candidates and 23% undecided.
Voter preferences in the
California Republican primary for President
(among likely voters in the CA Republican primary)
Without Thompson With Thompson
McCain 23% 22%
Romney 21 18
Giuliani 13 11
Huckabee 12 11
Thompson -- 9
Paul 7 7
Other 1 1
Undecided 23 21
THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY
OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS
THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD
During the past month, there has been a complete reordering of candidate preferences among Republicans likely to vote in California's February 5th primary election. Four weeks ago, Rudy Giuliani stood atop the field at 25%, followed by Mike Huckabee at 17%.
Now, John McCain, who was in fourth position in December, has vaulted to first place with 22%, just ahead of Mitt Romney, who is now in second place, with 18%.
Support for Giuliani has plummeted to 11% in the current poll, putting him in a tie with Huckabee for third place, just ahead of Fred Thompson (9%) and Ron Paul (7%).
The proportion of GOP voters who are undecided has grown to 21% and is nearly equivalent to that of frontrunner McCain.
These are the findings from the latest Field Poll of 377 likely voters in California's February 5th Republican primary for President.
The Field Poll #2261
Wednesday, January 23, 2008 Page 2
Table 1
Trend of voter preferences in the California Republican primary for president
(among likely voters in the CA Republican primary)
Mid-
January
2008 December2007 October2007 August 2007 March 2007
John McCain 22% 12% 12% 9% 24%
Mitt Romney 18 15 13 17 7
Rudy Giuliani 11 25 25 35 37
Mike Huckabee 11 17 4 1 3
Fred Thompson 9 6 12 13 8
Ron Paul 7 3 4 1 1
Other 1 4 3 4 5
Undecided 21 18 22 20 15
Note: The March 2007 survey included the names of Tommy Thompson Newt Gingrich and Chuck Hagel For comparative purposes
voters favoring these candidates were allocated to their second choice preferences.
Republican sub-group preferences
McCain leads Romney three to one (27% to 9%) among Republicans who describe themselves as
moderately conservative, moderate or liberal. By contrast, strong conservatives, who constitute
about half of the likely GOP electorate, favor Romney over McCain 26% to 16%.
Huckabee leads among those GOP voters who are born-again Christians, although his support
among this segment has declined from 31% in December to 20% in the current poll.
While McCain and Romney draw about equally from GOP voters with household incomes of
$80,000 or more, the Arizona Senator has an edge over Romney and Huckabee among those who
make less than $80,000.
McCain also holds an advantage among voters age 50 and older, while younger voters are about
evenly split between himself and Romney.
There are no significant differences in preferences by gender or between Northern and Southern
California Republicans.
The Field Poll #2261
Wednesday, January 23, 2008 Page 3
Table 2
Likely voter preferences in the California Republican
primary for president – by subgroup
McCain Romney Giuliani Huckabee Thompson Paul Other/ Undecided
Statewide 22% 18 11 11 9 7 22
Political ideology
(.51) Strongly
conservative 16% 26 14 14 11 4 15
(.49) Moderately
conservative/
moderate/liberal 27% 9 8 8 8 9 31
Born-again Christian
(.31) Yes 17% 17 14 20 9 6 17
(.69) No 25% 18 10 7 9 7 24
Region
(.59) Southern California 22% 18 12 12 9 6 21
(.41) Northern California 22% 17 10 10 10 8 23
Gender
(.51) Male 22% 18 13 11 10 7 19
(.49) Female 21% 18 9 11 9 6 26
Age
(.40) 18-49 18% 19 11 14 4 6 28
(.61) 50 or older 24% 16 11 9 13 7 20
Household income
(.45) Less than $80,000 23% 12 12 15 8 6 24
(.55) $80,000 or more 22% 20 12 10 10 7 19
Voting method
(.51) Precinct voter 24% 18 15 12 5 5 21
(.49) Mail ballot voter 19% 18 7 9 14 8 25
* Small sample base.
Thompson voters would prefer Romney and Giuliani over McCain
There has been some speculation that Thompson is considering withdrawing from the nomination
race. The current survey asked his supporters who their second choice preferences would be. The
results indicate that Romney would be the chief beneficiary in California if Thompson were to
withdraw, with 30% of Thompson supporters favoring him, followed by Giuliani at 20%, McCain at
11%, Huckabee at 8% and 31% undecided.
The Field Poll #2261
Wednesday, January 23, 2008 Page 4
Favorability ratings
Large majorities of the GOP rank-and-file, on the order of about three to one, have favorable
impressions of McCain and Romney. While Giuliani and Huckabee are also viewed positively,
they hold narrower five to three favorability ratios.
Table 3
Image ratings of the four leading GOP candidates for President
(among likely voters in the CA Republican primary)
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
McCain 68% 22 10
Romney 59% 23 18
Giuliani 54% 31 15
Huckabee 51% 26 23
Appraisal of personal attributes
McCain, who holds a narrow lead in overall preferences, rates higher than the other candidates in
respect to "having the right experience," with 36% of voters choosing him on this attribute,
followed by Romney (21%).
McCain also holds an advantage as the candidate with the best chance of winning the November
general election and being able to unite the U.S.
Romney (27%) and McCain (24%) are rated above the others in respect to being the candidate who
shares your values.
Romney outscores McCain (32% to 20%) and the others as being the candidate that best represents
what the Republican party stands for. Romney also holds a smaller advantage as the candidate who
best represents change.
The Field Poll #2261
Wednesday, January 23, 2008 Page 5
Table 4
Comparing voter perceptions of the four leading GOP candidates on six personal attributes
(among likely voters in the CA Republican primary)
McCain Romney Giuliani HuckabeeOther/None Don't know
Has the right experience 36% 21 21 4 8 10
Has the best chance of winning the
November general election 32% 20 18 7 6 17
Will be able to unite the U.S. 29% 20 20 5 14 12
Shares your values 24% 27 12 15 12 10
Best represents change 18% 23 16 14 12 17
Best represents what the Republican
Party stands for 20% 32 10 13 10 15
Most important issues to GOP primary voters
The issue that the largest proportion of GOP voters rates as being most important to them in
deciding whom to support for president is illegal immigration (40%). Next in order of importance
among Republican's likely to vote on February 5th is the terrorist threat (37%), followed by the war
in Iraq (33%) and jobs/the economy (33%).
Three other issues are rated by somewhat smaller proportions as being most important – foreign
policy (25%), taxes (24%), and health care (18%).
Table 5
Matters rated among "the most important" issues to Republican
primary voters when deciding whom to support for President
(among likely voters in the CA Republican primary)
Among the
most
important
Important,
but not the
most
important Not important
Illegal immigration 40% 48 11
The terrorist threat 37% 51 12
The war in Iraq 33% 59 8
Jobs and the economy 33% 60 7
Foreign policy 25% 66 8
Taxes 24% 68 8
Health care 18% 60 22
Differences between the sum of percentages for each item and 100% equals proportion with no opinion.
– 30 –
The Field Poll #2261
Wednesday, January 23, 2008 Page 6
Information About The Survey
Sample Details
The findings in this report are based on a random sample survey of 1,033 registered voters in California,
including 377 voters deemed likely to vote in the Republican primary election. The overall sample was
divided into two random subsamples on some of the survey questions.
Interviewing was conducted by telephone in English and Spanish January 14-20, 2008. Up to six attempts
were made to reach and interview each randomly selected voter on different days and times of day during the
interviewing period.
The sample was developed from telephone listings of individual voters selected at random from a statewide
list of registered voters in California. For this survey, the sample of registered Republicans was augmented
to increase the number of interviews conducted among likely GOP voters in the February 5th primary. Once
a voter’s name and telephone number has been selected, interviews are attempted only with the specified
voter. Interviews can be conducted on either the voter’s landline or cell phone, depending on the source of
the telephone listing from the voter file. After the completion of interviewing, the overall sample was
weighted to Field Poll estimates of the demographic and regional characteristics of the state’s registered
voter population.
Sampling error estimates applicable to any probability-based survey depend on sample size. The maximum
sampling error for results based on the overall sample of 377 likely GOP voters is +/- 5.2 percentage points.
The maximum sampling error is based on percentages in the middle of the sampling distribution (percentages
around 50%). Percentages at either end of the distribution (percentages around 10% or around 90%) have a
smaller margin of error. While there are other potential sources of error in surveys besides sampling error,
the overall design and execution of the survey minimized the potential for these other sources of error. The
maximum sampling error will be larger for subgroups of the overall sample.
Questions Asked
(IF HAVE NOT ALREADY VOTED, ASK:)
I am going to read the names of some Republicans who are running for the Republican presidential nomination this
year. For each, please tell me whether there would be a good chance, some chance or no chance that you would vote
for that person in California’s presidential primary election. You may name as many or as few persons as you like as
people you would be inclined to vote for. (NAMES AND TITLES OF CANDIDATES READ IN RANDOM ORDER) I am
going to read back the names of the candidates you said you would have at least some chance of voting for.
(NAMES OF CANDIDATES READ BACK) Of these persons, who would be your first choice if the California
Republican primary election for President were being held today? (IF FIRST CHOICE GIVEN) Who would be
your second choice?
(IF ALREADY VOTED, ASK:)
For whom did you vote in the Republican presidential primary election? (NAMES READ IN RANDOM ORDER)
(ASKED OF A RANDOM SUBSAMPLE OF REPUBLICANS)
Which of the four leading Republican candidates do you think (PERSONAL ATTRIBUTES READ IN RANDOM
ORDER) – Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, John McCain or Mitt Romney? (SEE RELEASE FOR ITEMS READ)
When considering this year's election for President, how important (are) (were) the candidates' position on
each of the following issues to you in deciding whom to support? (ISSUES READ IN RANDOM ORDER) (Is)
(Was) this the most important issue, an important issue but not the most important issue, or not an important
issue in your vote for President? (SEE RELEASE FOR ISSUES READ)
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (NAME)? (SEE RELEASE FOR CANDIDATES READ)
Thompson’s Withdrawal Makes Republican Presidential Contest Closer in California
By Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field
The withdrawal of Fred Thompson from the Republican presidential race yesterday tightens up the already close California Republican primary election. When voters who previously supported Thompson are allocated to the other candidates based on these voters' second choice preferences, John McCain's lead over Mitt Romney declines to two percentage points, 23% to 21%. In this setting, Rudy Giuliani receives 13% of the preferences, Mike Huckabee 12%, Ron Paul 7%, 1% for other candidates and 23% undecided.
Voter preferences in the
California Republican primary for President
(among likely voters in the CA Republican primary)
Without Thompson With Thompson
McCain 23% 22%
Romney 21 18
Giuliani 13 11
Huckabee 12 11
Thompson -- 9
Paul 7 7
Other 1 1
Undecided 23 21