TheEchoPlaza
01-27-2008, 11:53 PM
Florida Republican Primary within a percentage point!
Romney 28%
McCain 27%
Guilliani 19.5%
Huckabee 18%
Paul 8%
Its going to essentially be a tie for first between Romney and McCain, but will look better for Romney by preventing McCain from coasting into Super Tuesday. Guilliani and Huckabee will essentially tie for 2nd or 3rd, whichever way you want to look at it. Within 3 days Rudy will have thrown in the towel due to his dismal placing (and lack of competive money), but Huckabee is staying in for Feb. 5th. Ron will pick up some (1/5) disgruntled Thompson supporters keeping him respectable in the high single digits of an impossible state for him to do that well in (theres just too much money being thrown in there). Then it gets interesting...
Okay, so where do former Rudy and Thompson supporters go to? The large majority of Thompson people are going to Romney as evidenced in the latest Florida polls that he was never winning until Fred dropped out of. A slight majority of Giulliani people will go to McCain. Essentially this evens things up for those two going into Super Tuesday, just giving them higher percentage totals but no clear lead. But, remember I said that Huckabee would stick around. You may ask why he would continue to stay in the race when he hasn't won since Iowa and is low on cash? Don't forget he came within 3% of McCain in South Carolina, something that could have re-launched him big time. He continues to project an image of competiveness and that's all he needs with the evangelicals to get them to vote for him. Come Super Tuesday here's how the it will go in my informed prediction...
McCain: Wins California, Arizona, Alabama, New York, and all of the Northeast states except for Massachusetts and one other (whichever one Romney campaigns the hardest in). Although he'll seem as if he is now the man to beat, opposition from the Republican party insiders/bigwigs will point out that he almost entirely won in states that don't vote Republican, trying to delegitimize and stall his momentum.
Romney: Wins Massachusetts and one other Northeast state. Also wins Utah. His money, his pre-Feb. 5th delegate lead, his near-monopoly on 2nd place in states he loses on Feb. 5th, and his favorability with party insiders/bigwigs keeps him viable through Feb. 5th.
Huckabee: Surprise! He is not yet dead! I guarantee (more than any other candidate) that he will win in these states: Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, and Georgia. I won't guarantee Tennessee but he will be a very close second, same goes for Alabama. All other states outside of the South will doom him to 3rd or 4th place but his strong southern showing will egg him on to stay in the race past Feb. 5th and make a last stand in Texas' treasure trove of delegates.
Paul: First the bad news, he will come in 4th place (last) in the majority of super tuesday states, but they will be very competive 4th place finishes that are in the high single digits and low teens (hardly the quixotic gadfly they accuse him of being!). Now the good news...Paul will win Alaska with about a 30% plurality voting for him. This will be his only Super Tuesday 1st place win, but he will earn 2nd place in Montana, and one other West of the Mississipi state (I'm not willing to say which one). He will beat Huckabee for 3rd place in almost every Northeastern state. The media will try to ignore him as much as possible for his Alaska win but will be unable to when the mess is finally settled and it turns out he did win Louisiana's delegates. After this I can only say this, remember the tortoise and the hare.
What about the other states? Well, as for Colorado, Illinois, North Dakota, and Minnesota there is no evidence to me who will win these but it will either be McCain or Romney and neither will sweep all of them. Hawaii, is well, anybody's guess, but wouldn't it be cool if the Dr. nabbed it just for spite and could claim a monopoly on wins in non-continental states!? Hey delegates are delegates.
I'll say one more thing, it won't be over after Super Tuesday, all four will still be running, and for the first time in a long time you will actually see candidates actively campaigning in post-Feb. 5th states that are almost routinely taken for granted (because normally a Republican presidential candidate has already been annointed by this time and later states are just "show primaries"). Romney will pour more of his money in them to try and nab as many delegates as he can to even up the score with McCain leading up to the Convention. On the other hand, McCain is gonna try to claim he's annointed if he wins any single state after Feb. 5th but a combination of talk radio conservatives and Republican insiders will attempt to thwart this by holding up Romney as "the great hope" and the only real conservative (yeah right!). Huckabee will put his back up against the wall but lose Texas on March 4th and probably drop at that point. The question is if any decent amount of people who supported Mike, the man that steals from Ron Paul speeches, will go with the only other guy who wants to get rid of the IRS and is critical of the Bush Foriegn Policy. If that happens then Obi-Ron has a fighting chance at sneaking some states out from under the two un-Republican looking squabbling jackasses that Romney and McCain will begin to look like, that is, with a combination of continued grassroots support and money to spend on advertising and campaigning these red-headed step-child post-Feb. 5th states. Its going to be very interesting and this strategy could turn him into a real player when the convention comes along and nobody has enough delegates to win a majority. At that point, I know not what happens, but it will be the most chaotic Republican National Convention ever. Oh, and by the way thanks for reading my extremely long post and please comment on whether you find my prediction accurate or not, thanks!!!
Romney 28%
McCain 27%
Guilliani 19.5%
Huckabee 18%
Paul 8%
Its going to essentially be a tie for first between Romney and McCain, but will look better for Romney by preventing McCain from coasting into Super Tuesday. Guilliani and Huckabee will essentially tie for 2nd or 3rd, whichever way you want to look at it. Within 3 days Rudy will have thrown in the towel due to his dismal placing (and lack of competive money), but Huckabee is staying in for Feb. 5th. Ron will pick up some (1/5) disgruntled Thompson supporters keeping him respectable in the high single digits of an impossible state for him to do that well in (theres just too much money being thrown in there). Then it gets interesting...
Okay, so where do former Rudy and Thompson supporters go to? The large majority of Thompson people are going to Romney as evidenced in the latest Florida polls that he was never winning until Fred dropped out of. A slight majority of Giulliani people will go to McCain. Essentially this evens things up for those two going into Super Tuesday, just giving them higher percentage totals but no clear lead. But, remember I said that Huckabee would stick around. You may ask why he would continue to stay in the race when he hasn't won since Iowa and is low on cash? Don't forget he came within 3% of McCain in South Carolina, something that could have re-launched him big time. He continues to project an image of competiveness and that's all he needs with the evangelicals to get them to vote for him. Come Super Tuesday here's how the it will go in my informed prediction...
McCain: Wins California, Arizona, Alabama, New York, and all of the Northeast states except for Massachusetts and one other (whichever one Romney campaigns the hardest in). Although he'll seem as if he is now the man to beat, opposition from the Republican party insiders/bigwigs will point out that he almost entirely won in states that don't vote Republican, trying to delegitimize and stall his momentum.
Romney: Wins Massachusetts and one other Northeast state. Also wins Utah. His money, his pre-Feb. 5th delegate lead, his near-monopoly on 2nd place in states he loses on Feb. 5th, and his favorability with party insiders/bigwigs keeps him viable through Feb. 5th.
Huckabee: Surprise! He is not yet dead! I guarantee (more than any other candidate) that he will win in these states: Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, and Georgia. I won't guarantee Tennessee but he will be a very close second, same goes for Alabama. All other states outside of the South will doom him to 3rd or 4th place but his strong southern showing will egg him on to stay in the race past Feb. 5th and make a last stand in Texas' treasure trove of delegates.
Paul: First the bad news, he will come in 4th place (last) in the majority of super tuesday states, but they will be very competive 4th place finishes that are in the high single digits and low teens (hardly the quixotic gadfly they accuse him of being!). Now the good news...Paul will win Alaska with about a 30% plurality voting for him. This will be his only Super Tuesday 1st place win, but he will earn 2nd place in Montana, and one other West of the Mississipi state (I'm not willing to say which one). He will beat Huckabee for 3rd place in almost every Northeastern state. The media will try to ignore him as much as possible for his Alaska win but will be unable to when the mess is finally settled and it turns out he did win Louisiana's delegates. After this I can only say this, remember the tortoise and the hare.
What about the other states? Well, as for Colorado, Illinois, North Dakota, and Minnesota there is no evidence to me who will win these but it will either be McCain or Romney and neither will sweep all of them. Hawaii, is well, anybody's guess, but wouldn't it be cool if the Dr. nabbed it just for spite and could claim a monopoly on wins in non-continental states!? Hey delegates are delegates.
I'll say one more thing, it won't be over after Super Tuesday, all four will still be running, and for the first time in a long time you will actually see candidates actively campaigning in post-Feb. 5th states that are almost routinely taken for granted (because normally a Republican presidential candidate has already been annointed by this time and later states are just "show primaries"). Romney will pour more of his money in them to try and nab as many delegates as he can to even up the score with McCain leading up to the Convention. On the other hand, McCain is gonna try to claim he's annointed if he wins any single state after Feb. 5th but a combination of talk radio conservatives and Republican insiders will attempt to thwart this by holding up Romney as "the great hope" and the only real conservative (yeah right!). Huckabee will put his back up against the wall but lose Texas on March 4th and probably drop at that point. The question is if any decent amount of people who supported Mike, the man that steals from Ron Paul speeches, will go with the only other guy who wants to get rid of the IRS and is critical of the Bush Foriegn Policy. If that happens then Obi-Ron has a fighting chance at sneaking some states out from under the two un-Republican looking squabbling jackasses that Romney and McCain will begin to look like, that is, with a combination of continued grassroots support and money to spend on advertising and campaigning these red-headed step-child post-Feb. 5th states. Its going to be very interesting and this strategy could turn him into a real player when the convention comes along and nobody has enough delegates to win a majority. At that point, I know not what happens, but it will be the most chaotic Republican National Convention ever. Oh, and by the way thanks for reading my extremely long post and please comment on whether you find my prediction accurate or not, thanks!!!