Which 5 states can we realistically win

[RCRanger03]

I'm under the impression that to even come to the table in a brokered convention that we need to have won at least 5 states. Is this true, and if so then which 5 do we have the best chance of winning?

[zakkubin]

Alabama

If Mike were to drop out he could easily win Arkansas and probably other southern states.

[DirtMcGirt]

tenn, pa, maine, maine, alaska, what about oregon???

[Arklatex]

Arkansas
Hawaii
Alaska
Montanta
New York

[literatim]

I don't think we need to win 5 States, but 5 delegates from 5 States.

[Xyrus2]

Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands. I think we're the only ones who have a presence there and they do have delegates. :)

~X~

[CJLauderdale4]

Alaska
Alabama
Louisiana (still counting)
Montana
Maine

[Give me liberty]

California (Maybe i hope)
New York
Alabama
Alaska
well those are the states that maybe ron paul has some hope in them :)

remember those states on Feb 5 aren't all PRO war and There all not Pro bush.

[PimpBlimp]

I don't think we need to win 5 States, but 5 delegates from 5 States.

If thats true we probably have 2 states already covered :D


I think we will win the primary in LA

[pinkmandy]

I think we could take Oregon, too.

[Kotin]

you need to have won at least 5 states to even be eligable for the nomination!

[Sey.Naci]

I don't think we need to win 5 States, but 5 delegates from 5 States.Don't think that's right. Think RP has to win a majority in five States.

[fmontez]

Realistically? At present, none...

A lot will be decided in FL. If Romney wins, then he will most likely sweep Super Tuesday and be the clear front runner. If McCain wins FL then the race remains wide open. Rudy is probably out of the race, unless he pulls a huge comeback and wins FL. This year Flordia will make/or break the GOP nominee.

Ron Paul stays in the race if Rudy wins FL... if it comes down to McCain / Romney there will be no brokered convention, one of them will have enough delegates.

[Warrior_of_Freedom]

Az I dont know.....
Alaska, sure
Hawaii, I think
Texas, maybe
:/

Lousiana,
Alaska,
Alabama,
Montana,
Texas

[Crickett]

No..Florida only has 54 delegates to cough up as they were one of the states penalized. So whoever wins Fla. is not a slamdunk. CA has a LOT tho..140+ . If we could take that state it would be phenomenal.
PS..don't give out too much info on what is happening in ANY state. That helps alert the enemy.

[Warrior_of_Freedom]

No..Florida only has 54 delegates to cough up as they were one of the states penalized. So whoever wins Fla. is not a slamdunk. CA has a LOT tho..140+ . If we could take that state it would be phenomenal.
PS..don't give out too much info on what is happening in ANY state. That helps alert the enemy.

Yeah Mitt Romney might drop a few more millions.

"I'm a millionare businessman and I want to become president to give myself more millions!"

[InLoveWithRon]

Washington state EASILY.. They are gung ho for Paul
Oregon
Alaska
Louisiana (when they have the final election on Feb 9th)
Alabama
Texas
New Mexico
Montana
North Dakota

[Give me liberty]

Realistically? At present, none...

A lot will be decided in FL. If Romney wins, then he will most likely sweep Super Tuesday and be the clear front runner. If McCain wins FL then the race remains wide open. Rudy is probably out of the race, unless he pulls a huge comeback and wins FL. This year Flordia will make/or break the GOP nominee.

Ron Paul stays in the race if Rudy wins FL... if it comes down to McCain / Romney there will be no brokered convention, one of them will have enough delegates.

... Are you a mitt romney supporter?

[specsaregood]

Don't think that's right. Think RP has to win a majority in five States.

Correct. :(

From:
http://www.gop.com/About/Rules31-41.htm

RULE NO. 40
(b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of five (5) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination.

[Lyn]

According to the following in order to be nominated you must receive the majority of delegates in at least five separate states before the convention begins. I did find out though in my search that delegates won by candidates who withdraw can be released from their obligation by the candidate and are able to vote for another candidate so conceivably in states where someone is a close second they could then have the majority of delegates for that state.

From the GOP.com site



RULE NO. 40
Nominations
(a) In making the nominations for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States and voting thereon, the roll of the states shall be called separately in each case; provided, however, that if there is only one candidate for nomination for Vice President of the United States who has demonstrated the support required by paragraph (b) of this rule, a motion to nominate for such office by acclamation shall be in order and no calling of the roll with respect to such office shall be required.

(b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of five (5) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination.

(c) The total time of the nominating speech and seconding speeches for any candidate for nomination for President of the United States or Vice President of the United States shall not exceed fifteen (15) minutes.

(d) When at the close of a roll call any candidate for nomination for President of the United States or Vice President of the United States has received a majority of the votes entitled to be cast in the convention, the chairman of the convention shall declare that the candidate has been nominated.

(e) If no candidate shall have received such majority, the chairman of the convention shall direct the roll of the states be called again and shall repeat the calling of the roll until a candidate shall have received a majority of the votes entitled to be cast in the convention.

(f) For the 2004 Republican National Convention, notwithstanding any other provision of these rules or any Rule of the House of Representatives, it shall be in the discretion of the Chair to suspend the roll call conducted to nominate the candidate for President of the United States at any time in order to conduct other Convention business under the established order of business.

[hueylong]

ahh - the old 40(b).

[DeafPalmdale]

Hey, keep it secret! Remove this thread. :/

[davidt!]

New Mexico (if the campaign starts spending some money here), California, Alaska, Louisianna, Texas, Oregon.

[billyjoeallen]

tenn, pa, maine, maine, alaska, what about oregon???

Alaska, Tennessee, North and South Dakota, Montana

[nate895]

We can win in Washington, though Hucksterbee's people are starting to come out, and John McCain is well liked, if we can pull off victories on Super Tuesday, we can take it.

[ChickenHawk]

He is polling at less than 10% in every state where a poll has been conducted recently. Unless something changes I don't see how he will win any state.

Here in Washington state I see Ron Paul signs everywhere and have yet to see a sign for any other candidate. However, the enthusiasm of supporters and the ubiquity of yard signs does not mean a victory. The last poll I could find for Washington State had him at 4%. That was several months ago and I'm sure the numbers would be better now but it honestly doesn't look good.

The best thing to do is to push this thing as hard as possible and hope something happens that causes people to consider Ron Paul. Even if he doesn't win, a decent showing can really help propel this "revolution" into the future.

[aspiringconstitutionalist]

Realistically:

1. Alaska is our best shot -- just hope those folks don't get too complacent up there
2. Montana looks promising -- still needs some more hard work
3. Idaho -- we get good donations from Idaho, and it's one of the last states to vote so we'll have lots of time to prepare for this one
4. Ohio -- if I have anything to say about it; I'll bust my ass to see to it that my state goes to the Dr
5. Louisiana, hopefully, when all the votes are counted?

[nate895]

He is polling at less than 10% in every state where a poll has been conducted recently. Unless something changes I don't see how he will win any state.

Here in Washington state I see Ron Paul signs everywhere and have yet to see a sign for any other candidate. However, the enthusiasm of supporters and the ubiquity of yard signs does not mean a victory. The last poll I could find for Washington State had him at 4%. That was several months ago and I'm sure the numbers would be better now but it honestly doesn't look good.

The best thing to do is to push this thing as hard as possible and hope something happens that causes people to consider Ron Paul. Even if he doesn't win, a decent showing can really help propel this "revolution" into the future.

In canvassing, I've found 20% of everyone is for him, just not sure if he can win, so we probably could get much higher since that's everyone, and not just Republicans.

[hellsingfan]

I'm in Washington, yeah he has a chance but ONLY if the word gets out, I seriously doubt a win unless some major moves are made, I hope that RP can come to University of Washington, and Seattle again, we need rally's anti WTO stuff. Everyone knows Seattle is against World Bank and WTO and other major organization, so its a good state, but I don't think the campaign or the grassroots is doing enough here to actually win it. Anyways people i've talked to they just say no more republicans end of talk.

We need major outreach in Washington to actually have a chance of winning, otherwise I think Romney or McCain will take it, personally I think Romney will IF RP doesn't do and spending here. We need to organize major marches or something, that is usually how the word get popular here.

[hellsingfan]

Actually if you want to advertise here, then I recommend the transit buses. Our downtown is full of people who ride on the buses, and putting a ad on the back and side of the bus would be VERY good. Someone should start a chip in for that and talk to company who does this

[ProBlue33]

Guys do you know what this means, if Ron Paul doesn't pick up any states on super tuesday it's over.:(

[Bradley in DC]

I was thinking Alaska and Maine and some of the territories!

We need to win the majority of delegates (one way or another) in five "states" (including DC and the territories) or Dr. Paul is ineligible to be nominated. There are sleeper states out there--especially the territories. Dr. Paul has been polling above his averages with minorities, as I've been pointing out when public poll cross tabs are available (SurveyUSA is usually good for that).

We need to put our heads together and focus our resources. I'm suggesting that supporters in states that have already voted "adopt" territories and return the favor (Iowans target Guam, WY/NH team up to take North Marianas, SC takes Puerto Rico, NV takes US Virgin Islands, Michigan takes American Samoa--these are my suggestions based on population, religion, military, other demographics but obviously open to whatever).

My guess is that we could craft messages to appeal to these areas that are being overlooked by the other campaigns that are either broke or have no grassroots (or both). Check the FEC data for local contacts. This strategy could be coupled with chipins for ads (print, radio, whatever) for people who are probably feeling otherwise neglected, and, I suspect, would greatly appreciate our attention. I'm not sure how the calling operations work (call4Paul, ring4Paul) but that would be great.

We can't just then assume we're going to win all of the territories so we should take a hard look at the rest of the states and see if there are a few others we can pick off and get a majority of the delegates. Some other states will probably be neglected on Super Tuesday that might have good demographics for us.

These messages need to be crafted to the local concerns, not what we think is cool. I have no idea what those would be.

[specsaregood]

Guys do you know what this means, if Ron Paul doesn't pick up any states on super tuesday it's over.:(

Uhm, there are 20 states after super tuesday. Narrow down the field to RP + a neocon and it makes it all that much easier to target a single one.

Add to that our subversive RP delegates in the other states and you have a potential strategy.

[Original_Intent]

How many are after Super Tuesday? If Huck drops after Feb 5th, which I think is likely, don't we expect a lot of his support to come our way?

[zackmario]

Lots of logical techies... and RP is the most logical politician out there.

[zackmario]

We are not going to win in any state and RP knows that.

This is about promoting his ideas - and not about being president (at least not any more).

If we end up in a brokered convention, RP will use his influence for something (although I dont know what).

If there isnt a brokered convention AND we fund him - he will run as an independent - again, not because he thinks he can win - but because it will get the message out.

RP has secured his place in the history books as someone who changed America. I would not be surprised to see him as Person of the year, but perhaps several years out in retrospect.

I wish he would win. Am doing ALL i can do help, in any way I can.
But I have evolved my thinking to be in line with what I think his strategy is - its not about winning the presidency any longer - ITS MUCH BIGGER!

[nate895]

How many are after Super Tuesday? If Huck drops after Feb 5th, which I think is likely, don't we expect a lot of his support to come our way?

Depends on who's still in it.

I still think we can win do really well on Super Tuesday.

[aspiringconstitutionalist]

We are not going to win in any state and RP knows that.

This is about promoting his ideas - and not about being president (at least not any more).

If we end up in a brokered convention, RP will use his influence for something (although I dont know what).

If there isnt a brokered convention AND we fund him - he will run as an independent - again, not because he thinks he can win - but because it will get the message out.

RP has secured his place in the history books as someone who changed America. I would not be surprised to see him as Person of the year, but perhaps several years out in retrospect.

I wish he would win. Am doing ALL i can do help, in any way I can.
But I have evolved my thinking to be in line with what I think his strategy is - its not about winning the presidency any longer - ITS MUCH BIGGER!

I see you're semi-new here. Well, we don't tolerate that kind of talk around here, summer soldier. We're in it to win it.

[affa]

Guys do you know what this means, if Ron Paul doesn't pick up any states on super tuesday it's over.:(

Actually, that's when it begins.

People were saying it was over before it started. People were saying it was over after New Hampshire. People love to tell us it's over whenever they get the chance.

They are missing the point.

Ron Paul for the long haul.

[Roadrcr]

Don't forget Guam .

[Detonator]

Realistically? At present, none...

A lot will be decided in FL. If Romney wins, then he will most likely sweep Super Tuesday and be the clear front runner. If McCain wins FL then the race remains wide open. Rudy is probably out of the race, unless he pulls a huge comeback and wins FL. This year Flordia will make/or break the GOP nominee.

Ron Paul stays in the race if Rudy wins FL... if it comes down to McCain / Romney there will be no brokered convention, one of them will have enough delegates.

Oh gawd, Florida is the state that f***ed us with the Gore/Bush "chad" mess.

Start demanding a recount now!

[idiom]

One win anywhere on Super Tuesday would bust the dam wide open.

[Dustancostine]

Realistically:

1. Alaska is our best shot -- just hope those folks don't get too complacent up there
2. Montana looks promising -- still needs some more hard work
3. Idaho -- we get good donations from Idaho, and it's one of the last states to vote so we'll have lots of time to prepare for this one
4. Ohio -- if I have anything to say about it; I'll bust my ass to see to it that my state goes to the Dr
5. Louisiana, hopefully, when all the votes are counted?

I hate to say this but Idaho has a lot, I mean a lot of Mormons, and you know what that means.

--Dustan

[ChickenHawk]

I hate to say this but Idaho has a lot, I mean a lot of Mormons, and you know what that means.

--Dustan


And every Idaho poll I can find has Romney with a large lead.:rolleyes: They're all old polls, but still.

[zackmario]

I see you're semi-new here. Well, we don't tolerate that kind of talk around here, summer soldier. We're in it to win it.
Then lets win - Im ALL for it.

Help our efforts to get killer questions to the top of the Politico debate most popular list.

Read this thread for details. http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=100959

[zackmario]

Do we not stand a chance here? Theres so many techies here. McClintok just endorsed RP. Huck and Julie dont stand a chance here.

[ChickenHawk]

Do we not stand a chance here? Theres so many techies here. McClintok just endorsed RP. Huck and Julie dont stand a chance here.


I think California awards delegates by congressional district so it would seem to be a great opportunity to focus on individual districts to pick up delegates. Winning a plurality of the state sounds like a long shot though.

Did McClintock actually endorse Ron Paul? I heard he said something positive about him but I haven't heard of an endorsement yet.

[gaazn]

if it's in the mountains, RP can win it.

[blakjak]

Realistically? At present, none...


Unfortunately this is accurate...

[hellsingfan]

I agree we need to concentrate on some districts in California, especifically in San Fransicso, I heard they have the largest population of gays, they should all come to RP. lol

[Spideynw]

What it sounds like, is who is going to drop out. I think Giuliani and Huckabee will both drop out after super Tuesday. It will be interesting to see if McCain will be able to stick it out. I don't think he has much money either. Of course, with all the free press, he doesn't really need any.

[InLoveWithRon]

Washington state EASILY.. They are gung ho for Paul. Remember the Seattle riots against corporations
Oregon
Alaska
Louisiana (when they have the final election on Feb 9th)
Alabama
Texas - Paul's home state
New Mexico
Montana
North Dakota
South Dakota
Maine

[defe07]

Washington state EASILY.. They are gung ho for Paul. Remember the Seattle riots against corporations
Oregon
Alaska
Louisiana (when they have the final election on Feb 9th)
Alabama
Texas - Paul's home state
New Mexico
Montana
North Dakota
South Dakota
Maine

I also think he can win Mississippi and Georgia. The states where delegates are allocated by CD, I'm sure he can win a big chunk in CA (Silicon Valley, home of the techies!) and other states. Hawaii could also go to Paul, since turnout is expected to be low (just like NV) and it all depends on the GOTV effort. Texas is a hard nut, he may not win the state but he could end up winning the most delegates (CD allocation) although a win in a big state would just be nice and sweet!!

[defe07]

No..Florida only has 54 delegates to cough up as they were one of the states penalized. So whoever wins Fla. is not a slamdunk. CA has a LOT tho..140+ . If we could take that state it would be phenomenal.
PS..don't give out too much info on what is happening in ANY state. That helps alert the enemy.

Agreed, let's play reverse psychology. Or talk in morse code. :rolleyes: How do you think we won WWII, did we toss a coin or just play paper-scissors-rock? :D

[ChickenHawk]

Washington state EASILY.. They are gung ho for Paul. Remember the Seattle riots against corporations

It's ridiculous to think any state will be easy. Also, I think you misunderstand the WTO riots.

I do think that Ron Paul could possibly win here if Hucky drops out. Remember Pat Robertson won here once.

[RCRanger03]

Wow i went to have coffee with friends and i come back to 6 pages lol.

As for Texas, support that I have actually seen myself is super strong in Austin, and sorta strong in San Antonio.

I've already started my diabolic plan to get all of University of Texas at San Antonio to seek out RP's name.

[Gustogus]

I know its been said but..


Brokered convention...Political Blackmail!

"Nominate me VP or I run 3rd party"..

BAM! RPVP

[MozoVote]

Even if Paul doesn't have 5 states, all his delegates still go to the convention, right? This is where the influence comes in. If Romney and McCain are neck and neck, and need the uncomitted delegates to get over the top, there will be some deal-making taking place.

[familydog]

How many are after Super Tuesday? If Huck drops after Feb 5th, which I think is likely, don't we expect a lot of his support to come our way?

Not with the way people here treat them, no.

[mysticgeek]

North Dakota
Minnesota
Alaska
Montana
Hawaii

[realist]

I hope some here are finally getting the picture that our past performances are NOT good. We must win 5 states outright and thats not going to happen by Grassroots alone.

Dr. Paul and the official campaign MUST do something to start placing doubt in the other candidates supporters. He MUST start showing a strong side with some fight and leadership potential. People will not vote for a sweet little old passive guy for the presidency.... and the results thus far bear that fact out.

[freedom-maniac]

Virginia too, he's done amazingly well in the straw polls in VA.

[homah]

I see you're semi-new here. Well, we don't tolerate that kind of talk around here, summer soldier. We're in it to win it.

What an insulting post. One can work hard for Dr. Paul while at the same time being able to see the bigger picture. His post inspired me to work harder. Yours depressed me and made me wonder what this place is all about. Are we supposed to stop speaking our true feelings, stop being semi-new and properly assimilate ourselves into some sort of cult mentality that is the RonPaulForums?

edit -- If I'm wrong and this was said tongue-in-check, ignore this post.

[lynnf]

I wish it weren't so, but those of you that had Texas on the list, better consider again. Ron is just one of about 33 congressmen in Texas and many people don't even know their own congressman. he's not well known in Texas just as much as he's not well known in the rest of the country. no favorite-son automatic win here.


lynn

[MayTheRonBeWithYou]

I'm under the impression that to even come to the table in a brokered convention that we need to have won at least 5 states. Is this true, and if so then which 5 do we have the best chance of winning?

This brokered convention stuff is not going to happen.

Our goal is to kick ass on Feb 5, then get ready for an independent run.

The only other option is RP being offered the vice presidency.

[AlbemarleNC0003]

Don't forget NC. We are heavy militarily and always goes red. There are signs all over Charlotte. We really need some leadership here to get everyone working. May 6 is the primary.

[marsha s]

you need to have won at least 5 states to even be eligable for the nomination!

I keep reading this - but I also keep hearing how if there is a brokered convention - someone could be nominated who hasn't even entered the race yet - what's that all about?

[hawkeyenick]

Don't forget NC. We are heavy militarily and always goes red. There are signs all over Charlotte. We really need some leadership here to get everyone working. May 6 is the primary.

I have a friend there, sarah madsen, who is telling me the same thing

[sgrooms]

everyone, including HQ, needs to add arizona to their list. everyone here is fed up with mccain. huckabee-no chance. gulliani- same as huck. romney- a ton of mormons down here, but i know quite a few that will be voting for RP instead; same in california.

all in all, arizona is not a hard state to win at all. we have the first ever meetup group and the revolution logo originated here.

we NEED HQ to focus on this state. its a big one.

[FreeTraveler]

(b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of five (5) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination.


Read it again. Based on this, I don't think anybody has any states. Did Romney get OVER HALF the delegates from Nevada?

[Rede]

Our goal is to kick ass on Feb 5, then get ready for an independent run.

No, actually, an independent run is not our goal. Our goal is the Republican nomination.

Please stop saying this crap in every thread. Paul has unequivocally stated an independent run is "not gonna happen".

[fj45lvr]

I think we could take Oregon, too.

I live in Oregon and it is closed primary and the chance while there right now is nearly NIL....people don't know who he is and there are neo-cons everywhere...in fact there is a nationally syndicated neo-con that has a oregon radio show that many conservatives tune into here: Lars Larson.

[hellsingfan]

I think West Coast is good but we aren't gonna win it with whats happening here. No body knows RP, and if they do then they simply hate Republicans, maybe if RP ran as a democrat we would've won the whole west

[Brian Bailey]

I have it on good authority that we have the numbers to win Illinois if we can GOTV.

[Chadd Murray]

What an insulting post. One can work hard for Dr. Paul while at the same time being able to see the bigger picture. His post inspired me to work harder. Yours depressed me and made me wonder what this place is all about. Are we supposed to stop speaking our true feelings, stop being semi-new and properly assimilate ourselves into some sort of cult mentality that is the RonPaulForums?

edit -- If I'm wrong and this was said tongue-in-check, ignore this post.
HERE HERE! Someone speaks the truth, someone isn't a sheep, someone follows Ron's lead and they get insulted for being a pessimist when there's no evidence such extreme optimism will even help the campaign.

[westmich4paul]

everyone, including HQ, needs to add arizona to their list. everyone here is fed up with mccain. huckabee-no chance. gulliani- same as huck. romney- a ton of mormons down here, but i know quite a few that will be voting for RP instead; same in california.

all in all, arizona is not a hard state to win at all. we have the first ever meetup group and the revolution logo originated here.

we NEED HQ to focus on this state. its a big one.

The polls are showing McCAIN with a big lead in AZ. I may be biased towards Ron but I seriously do not know why anybody supports this tool!

[kyleAF]

I wish it weren't so, but those of you that had Texas on the list, better consider again. Ron is just one of about 33 congressmen in Texas and many people don't even know their own congressman. he's not well known in Texas just as much as he's not well known in the rest of the country. no favorite-son automatic win here.


lynn

Maybe so... but here in Texas today as we were passing out slim jims in parking lots, we came across several supporters who "knew him". One of them said: "Ron Paul? Of course I know him, he delivered my two kids!". No kidding.

Those 4000 babies must be around here somewhere... ;)

[Paul4Prez]

Here's my take on our chances on February 5th:

http://paul4prez.blogspot.com/2008/01/ron-pauls-chances-on-february-5th.html

I think Alaska, Montana, West Virginia, Minnesota, and Tennessee offer the best chances on that day. We could pull a surprise in Maine, if everyone else truly is ignoring it, as seems to be the case.

[nodope0695]

Alaska, Washington, Arizona, Hawaii, Oregon

also: the Territories

[Rusty John]

Alaska, Louisiana, Montana, New Mexico, Maine (a stretch), and Washington

[Rusty John]

He'd win a lot more out west but for the Romney Mormon vote- so that pretty much removes Utah and Idaho

[Rusty John]

The campaign hasn't made much sense until this rule was pointed out- but the fact that Paul is hitting the uncontested or under contested states like Louisiana, Maine, Montana, etc leads me to believe that is a nifty strategy. When you look at whose campaigns are being run with the most strategy, only Paul and Romney seem to have a plan. Guiliani's "wait till Florida" idea will be seen as the worst move in recent political history. McCain would have been dead if Romney won NH. Media darling gets tons of free press even if he is broke. Huckabee had the good fortune of demographics. We'll need him on super tuesday to take some southern states. I'd like to have the Ghoul win Florida and take some of the NE states from McCain, but that looks like it isn't going to happen. Romney is content to hang in there and keep picking up delegates.