Bradley in DC
08-03-2007, 12:27 AM
http://cookpolitical.com/column/2007/072807.php
Watch for Retirements
By Charlie Cook
© National Journal Group Inc.
July 28, 2007
This column was originally featured in National Journal on July 28, 2007.
Just over a month from now, members of Congress will be returning from their "Summer District Work Period," aka the August recess, ready to take on the legislative items remaining on their agenda as they head toward adjournment sometime in late fall. Politically speaking, however, September is more important than the final months of 2007. That month is when we will begin to see whether an unusually large number of House members will opt to retire and, if so, whether the retirements are concentrated in one party, and in competitive or potentially competitive districts.
Retirements are an extremely important element -- perhaps greater than the Iraq war -- in determining what is likely to happen in next year's House elections. Although the same is somewhat true in the Senate, the much smaller universe of potential retirees and the historically lower re-election rates for incumbents mean that the level of voluntary retirements will be a bit less pivotal in that chamber's 2008 elections. . .
Watch for Retirements
By Charlie Cook
© National Journal Group Inc.
July 28, 2007
This column was originally featured in National Journal on July 28, 2007.
Just over a month from now, members of Congress will be returning from their "Summer District Work Period," aka the August recess, ready to take on the legislative items remaining on their agenda as they head toward adjournment sometime in late fall. Politically speaking, however, September is more important than the final months of 2007. That month is when we will begin to see whether an unusually large number of House members will opt to retire and, if so, whether the retirements are concentrated in one party, and in competitive or potentially competitive districts.
Retirements are an extremely important element -- perhaps greater than the Iraq war -- in determining what is likely to happen in next year's House elections. Although the same is somewhat true in the Senate, the much smaller universe of potential retirees and the historically lower re-election rates for incumbents mean that the level of voluntary retirements will be a bit less pivotal in that chamber's 2008 elections. . .