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Bradley in DC
08-02-2007, 10:34 PM
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/how_tight_is_the_screen_part_i_1.php

August 03, 2007
How Tight is the Screen? Part II
I want to pick up where I left off on Tuesday, when I wrote about the way national surveys screen for primary voters. How well have the pollsters in early primary states done in disclosing how tightly they "screen" to identify the voters that will actually turn out to vote (or caucus)? Not very well, unfortunately.
For those just dropping in, here is the basic dilemma: Voter turnout in primary elections and, especially in caucus states like Iowa, is typically much lower than in the general election. A pre-election survey that aims to track and ultimately project the outcome of the "horse-race" -- the measure of voter preferences "if the election were held today" -- needs to represent the population of "likely voters." When the expected turnout is very low, that becomes a difficult task, especially when polling many months before an election. . .