Why is a brokered convention good?

[dt_]

I've seen speculation that Ron Paul's campaign is making an effort to secure some delegates despite the odds against Paul's winning the nomination because they are hoping for a brokered GOP convention. But why would this be good for Ron Paul? Even if Paul had a couple hundred delegates or so, what would keep the other "frontrunners" from colluding and sharing delegates to catapult them to the nomination, leaving the votes of Paul's delegates unused? If Paul doesn't have a plurality of delegates then the most he can hope for is to "influence" the candidates with his policy ideas, but even so, how can we be sure that the eventual GOP nominee will actually adhere to these ideas?

Could someone please explain the logic behind this speculation? :) I'm genuinely interested!

Thank you very much.

[freedom-maniac]

Going back to the 1800s, when brokered conventions happened, the delegates would have to vote over and over again until finally a candidate could be agreed upon. I never believed that that would be Ron Paul.

Of course if the results are

Huck: 19%
Rudy: 19%
McCain: 20%
Romney: 20%
RP: 22%

then we're good.

[dt_]

bump

[StateofTrance]

100 years

[idiom]

At the convention it comes down to electability. Ron can torpedo any other republican by going third party. However all the non-republican stats are in his favour. An pro intervention candidate could win the Gop Nom, but is highly unlikely to win the general. And so on.

If it comes to a convention and RP is there, then his favourability goes way up. On paper anyways.

[j6p]

These neo-con bush lovers need to know that Ron can torpedo and make the GOP loose this Nov.

[dt_]

idiom i sure hope you're right

[Peace&Freedom]

I'll just repost my scenario for a Paul brokered win:

Paul should be working at developing the best case he can to be the 'unifier' of healer candidate at a brokered convention. The grassroots should supply Paul with monthly money bombs into the summer so that he has $20-25 million on him going into September. Paul should also commission polls showing how well he would do in the election vs Hillary/Obama (I suspect it will be much better than McCain et al). The grassroots should prepare to travel en masse to Minnesota in a "Million Paul Pilgrimage" to ENCAMP themselves around the convention center, to influence the convention to choose Paul.

Finally, he should consider accepting the Libertarian and/or Constitution Party endorsement. Getting himself on the November ballot via 3rd party automatically makes the other Republican candidates unelectable, by dividing the conservative vote, and so neutralizes that argument against him. Being on the other line while asking for the GOP nomination also makes Paul look like the unifier, the 'total package' who brings in 3rd party independents, has tens of millions, and clobbers Hillary in the polls. If the delegates don't choose Paul under these circumstances, it's on THEM for losing the election to Hillary.

[freedom-maniac]

Agreed. I've been saying we need to flood St. Paul for Paul (some pun intended)

[Bradley in DC]

Unless we win a five or more states, we can't be nominated:

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=47093

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=47114

[freedom-maniac]

Okay, how about Alaska, the Dakotas, Montana, and...Rhode Island (b/c it is oh-so small).

[Bradley in DC]

Okay, how about Alaska, the Dakotas, Montana, and...Rhode Island (b/c it is oh-so small).

HA!

I was thinking Alaska and Maine and some of the territories!

We need to win the majority of delegates (one way or another) in five "states" (including DC and the territories) or Dr. Paul is ineligible to be nominated. There are sleeper states out there--especially the territories. Dr. Paul has been polling above his averages with minorities, as I've been pointing out when public poll cross tabs are available (SurveyUSA is usually good for that).

We need to put our heads together and focus our resources. I'm suggesting that supporters in states that have already voted "adopt" territories and return the favor (Iowans target Guam, WY/NH team up to take North Marianas, SC takes Puerto Rico, NV takes US Virgin Islands, Michigan takes American Samoa--these are my suggestions based on population, religion, military, other demographics but obviously open to whatever).

My guess is that we could craft messages to appeal to these areas that are being overlooked by the other campaigns that are either broke or have no grassroots (or both). Check the FEC data for local contacts. This strategy could be coupled with chipins for ads (print, radio, whatever) for people who are probably feeling otherwise neglected, and, I suspect, would greatly appreciate our attention. I'm not sure how the calling operations work (call4Paul, ring4Paul) but that would be great.

We can't just then assume we're going to win all of the territories so we should take a hard look at the rest of the states and see if there are a few others we can pick off and get a majority of the delegates. Some other states will probably be neglected on Super Tuesday that might have good demographics for us.

These messages need to be crafted to the local concerns, not what we think is cool. I have no idea what those would be.

[cjhowe]

To the party, the presidency is a nice chunk, but it's not everything. A party wants to secure the down-ticket races. Look at the party's options.

John McCain - won't attack Clinton. They're chummy. Alienates fiscal conservatives, alienates social conservatives has no pomp and no solutions. His current wins are a mix between independents recognizing his name from 2000 and the Bob Dole-"his turn" rank.

Mitt Romney - flip flopper. Says many of the right things now, but not trustworthy. Might give Bloomberg ideas on jumping as it would be a true 3-way race.

Mike Huckabee - Alienates fiscal conservatives. Has a bit of charm, but really only appeals to evangelicals. I don't suspect he'd come out very well in an Arkansas mud battle. - Might also give Bloomberg ideas on jumping in as that's a big centrist left wide open. This would be a 2-way race with Huck being left out - Not a result the Republican's can afford.

Rudy - Almost nobody likes him. Those that do like him. Nobody likes those people.

Ron Paul - not just keeps, but inspires the fiscal conservatives. Keeps the social conservatives. Loses the neocon (admit it, when elections are won 51/49 their lack of morals can be helpful and not necessarily a group you want to compete against). Steals the far left with the pro civil liberties and ant war stance. Bloomberg would truly only serve as a spoiler in this race.

[Goldwater Conservative]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wendell_Willkie#1940_Nomination


Long before the 1940 Republican National Convention, held in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, the three "main" candidates for the nomination were considered to be Senators Robert Taft of Ohio and Arthur Vandenberg of Michigan and Thomas E. Dewey, the "gangbusting" District Attorney from Manhattan. All three men had campaigned vigorously during the primary season, but only 300 of the 1,000 convention delegates had been pledged to a candidate by the time the convention opened. This left an opening for a dark horse candidate to emerge.

As a former Democrat and a Wall Street-based industrialist who had never before run for public office, Willkie seemed an unlikely candidate for the nomination. He had received backing from media magnates who helped to build a grassroots network; key Willkie supporters were Ogden Reid of the New York Herald Tribune, Roy Howard of the Scripps-Howard chain and John and Gardner Cowles, publishers of the Minneapolis Star and the Minneapolis Tribune, as well as the Des Moines Register and Look magazine. But Willkie's popularity was thinly spread, with a May 8 Gallup poll showing Dewey at 67% support among Republicans, followed by Vandenberg and Taft, with Willkie at a mere 3%.

To isolationists Willkie seemed one of them, by saying, "No man has the right to use the great powers of the Presidency to lead the people, indirectly, into war", The next day newspaper headlines blared, "MUST AVOID WAR, WILLKIE DECLARES".

The Nazis' rapid blitz into France shook public opinion to its roots, even as Taft was telling a Kansas audience that America must concentrate on domestic issues to prevent the New Deal from using the international crisis to extend its powers at home. In New York, Republican Congressman Hamilton Fish III warned that Roosevelt had become Churchill's willing accomplice in leading his nation to war against Germany to make the world safe for international communism. He denied being an isolationist, saying he was actually a non-interventionist who wanted negotiated settlements of disputes rather than American involvement in foreign wars. Nevertheless, sympathy for the British was mounting daily. By mid-June, little over one week before the convention, Gallup reported Willkie was in second place with 17% as Dewey started slipping. Willkie was stumping the country getting the votes of businessmen and German-Americans. As the delegates were arriving at Philadelphia, Gallup reported Willkie had surged to 29%, Dewey had slipped 5 more points to 47%, and Taft, Vandenberg and Hoover trailed at 8, 8, and 6% respectively.

Hundreds of thousands, perhaps as many as one million, telegrams urging support for Willkie poured in, many from "Willkie Clubs" that had sprung up across the country. Millions more signed petitions circulating everywhere. At the convention itself, keynote speaker Governor Harold Stassen of Minnesota announced for Willkie and became his official floor manager. Hundreds of vocal Willkie supporters packed the upper galleries of the convention hall. Willkie's amateur status and fresh face appealed to delegates as well as voters. The delegations were selected not by primaries but by party leaders in each state, and they had a keen sense of the fast changing pulse of public opinion. Gallup found the same thing in data not reported until after the convention: Willkie had pulled ahead among Republican voters by 44% to only 29% for the collapsing Dewey. On the first ballot no one came close to a majority. As delegates belonging to "favorite son" candidates were released, the incessant cries of "We want Willkie" inside the hall mirrored not only public opinion at home, but the political calculus inside the heads of the delegates. Finally, on the sixth ballot, Willkie received a majority of the ballots cast and won the nomination.

[Shink]

What do you think of Arizona? We've all been saying (and possibly hoping) that Ron should do well in the mountain west and southwest. I know it's McCain's home state, but I'm sure there are tons of people sick of him as Senator to the point of opposing his presidential run. That and Arizona has shown itself to be really strong for Ron, grassroots-wise.

I wish Ron would make a big swing through Texas, too. Say hello to his district, have a rally in Houston and a few other big cities. He really should cash in on his homestate. (And his other homestate of Pennsylvania)

[jdmetz]

Now *that* is an inspiring story!

[freedom-maniac]

HA!

I Michigan takes American Samoa.

I don't no what I can do, but I'll try. (I'm not sure, I may know a Samoan...)

[vitaminb12]

Willkie was an establishment candidate forced upon the republicans by the usual banking and business interests. They did not want Taft to win because they could not control him. This has no relation to Paul whatsoever.

As for the brokered convention, at the very least it will give Paul an amplified stage with which to spread his message. It is a desirable situation even if he has no chance of winning.

[Goldwater Conservative]

Willkie was an establishment candidate forced upon the republicans by the usual banking and business interests. They did not want Taft to win because they could not control him. This has no relation to Paul whatsoever.

As for the brokered convention, at the very least it will give Paul an amplified stage with which to spread his message. It is a desirable situation even if he has no chance of winning.

It does show how a divided convention can be won even by someone deemed as having little support at one point.

[vitaminb12]

It does show how a divided convention can be won even by someone deemed as having little support at one point.

On the contrary, it is often cited as an example of how easily the establishment can create a candidate out of nothing. They wanted to torpedo Taft, so they dusted off some nobody and with their vast resources made him a champ within months. Notice how Willkie was suddenly pushed by all those mainstream newspaper and magazine men listed in that article.

Paul is directly opposing the interests that affected that massive turnaround. If anything, the example of Willkie should give Paul supporters caution.

[Goldwater Conservative]

On the contrary, it is often cited as an example of how easily the establishment can create a candidate out of nothing. They wanted to torpedo Taft, so they dusted off some nobody and with their vast resources made him a champ within months. Notice how Willkie was suddenly pushed by all those mainstream newspaper and magazine men listed in that article.

Paul is directly opposing the interests that affected that massive turnaround. If anything, the example of Willkie should give Paul supporters caution.

Fair enough, but I still don't see how a brokered convention helps any candidate more than Paul. All the other candidates are fiercely hated by segments of the base and/or establishment, and a brokered convention would mean bloody infighting that the other candidates can avoid just by getting pluralities (don't even have to be strong ones) in enough states, which they can.

Paul, meanwhile, in my experience, is much easier to sell on a retail level, so if he has quality delegates they have a chance to sway the rest of the delegates. Trying to capture an outright majority before the convention is possibly actually harder for Paul since it'd mean winning entire states despite his (still) poor name recognition, the media blackout he faces, and misinformation about his views.

[j0ew00ds]

Fair enough, but I still don't see how a brokered convention helps any candidate more than Paul. All the other candidates are fiercely hated by segments of the base and/or establishment, and a brokered convention would mean bloody infighting that the other candidates can avoid just by getting pluralities (don't even have to be strong ones) in enough states, which they can.

Paul, meanwhile, in my experience, is much easier to sell on a retail level, so if he has quality delegates they have a chance to sway the rest of the delegates. Trying to capture an outright majority before the convention is possibly actually harder for Paul since it'd mean winning entire states despite his (still) poor name recognition, the media blackout he faces, and misinformation about his views.

I think you may be underestimating the influence of the Neocons in the past 15-20 years. Republicans have been force-fed this ideology for a while now and many believe it...

[gaazn]

if this is indeed a revolution, then a brokered convention would be the best time for RP delegates to walk out the convention and meet somewhere else. more delegates means more credibility for this bold action.