Pew Research GOP National Primary; Paul jumps from -- to 2%

[Bradley in DC]

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?PageID=1174

Pew Research GOP National Primary (PDF)
Rudy Giuliani 27% (32%)
Fred Thompson 18% (10%)
John McCain 16% (23%)
Mitt Romney 10% (8%)
Newt Gingrich 8% (9%)
2nd Choice
Rudy Giuliani 21% (32%)
John McCain 14% (21%)
Fred Thompson 12% (7%)
Mitt Romney 8% (11%)
Newt Gingrich 8% (10%)
Survey of 546 registered Republican voters was conducted July 25-29. The margin of error is +/-4.5 percentage points. Results from Pew’s last poll, conducted April 18-22, are in parentheses.

But this is our biggest opportunity!!!!


Many Republicans Want New Direction in Iraq


A majority of Republicans continue to want a GOP presidential nominee who will take a different approach on Iraq than President Bush. Fully 53% of all registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they want their party's next nominee to follow a different course on the war while 36% want a candidate who will continue the president's policies.


Support for a new direction is overwhelming among moderate and liberal Republican voters, 69% of whom want a candidate who will provide a different approach to Iraq. But even among conservative Republicans, 46% want a candidate with new ideas, while 43% prefer a candidate who will continue Bush's policies in Iraq. Not surprisingly, ratings of George W. Bush are the predominant factor in this evaluation. Among the growing minority (currently 26%) of Republican voters who disapprove of Bush's job performance fully 88% say they want a candidate who will pursue a different approach in Iraq.

Despite this sentiment within the GOP, no Republican presidential hopeful disproportionately appeals to those who favor a different approach on the war. Neither has one candidate emerged as the clear and distinct favorite of Republicans who want to see the administration's policies continue, suggesting that issues other than the war are currently more powerful in shaping GOP voter sentiments.

Giuliani continues to lead Republican voters who favor change in Iraq (25%) and among those who support continuing present polices (28%). At the same time, Thompson currently is supported by 17% of those who want change and 22% of those who prefer a continuation of Bush's strategy. Roughly equal proportions of Republicans who favor a new direction and those who support the administration's present policies favor McCain (17% of those who favor a new approach support him vs. 16% of those who do not), Romney (9% vs. 11%) and Gingrich (7% vs. 11%). Taken together when the candidates are ranked by the size of their support among those who favor and oppose new policies in Iraq, the order of the field is virtually identical among both groups.

Significantly, however, 16% of all Republicans who say they want to see the nominee take a different approach on Iraq currently have no favorite candidate. That's double the proportion of undecided voters among Republicans who want the party's standard-bearer to continue Bush war policies, suggesting the potential for significant shifts in support as candidates fine-tune their positions on the war or their views become better known. Together, these findings underscore the difficulties faced by the GOP candidates over what position to take on Bush policies in Iraq and the importance of issues such as international terrorism, the economy and social concerns to large numbers of GOP voters.

[Bradley in DC]

A clear majority of Americans (59%) say they have not yet seen any of the televised face-offs between Republican or Democratic contenders. At the same time, 40% report they have seen at least one debate, double the proportion that saw a debate in January of 2004 and another indication of public interest in a presidential contest that won't be decided for 15 months. A 2-1 majority of all debate watchers say they found the debates to be "helpful" in learning about the candidates and nearly half (47%) report televised confrontations between the candidates were "fun to watch."

Even many Americans who are paying at least some attention to the presidential contests have so far skipped watching the presidential debates. Six-in-ten of those who say they have given "a lot" of thought to the candidates have seen a debate, while 40% have not. Among those who have given "some" thought, 40% have seen a debate. At the same time, just 20% of those who acknowledge that they have given little or no thought to the contest have seen a candidate forum. Similarly, barely four-in-10 (42%) of all self-described registered voters say they've seen a debate compared with 33 percent of those not yet signed up to vote.

More Democrats (45%) than Republicans (38%) report they had watched a debate. Notably, only a quarter of all moderate Republicans (25%) have seen a debate while 75% have not.

[stevedasbach]

Among those Republicans who support the current direction in Iraq, Paul has zero percent. Among those who want change, he has 5%. As Bradley in DC noted, 53% currently want change, and that percentage keeps rising.

Bottom line -- Paul needs to continue hammering away at the war in Iraq. This is the issue that distinguishes him from the rest of the field -- the issue that can propel him to victory.

[Cowlesy]

Thanks for providing this information! It helps folks like me gear our message to take on the highest probability of receiving a receptive response. I find that selling the idea of giving Ron Paul a chance is helping me tally up votes faster than trying to sell his message myself. Once my friends have gone online and watched the videos, they slowly become believers.:)

THANKS!

[Bradley in DC]

Thanks for providing this information! It helps folks like me gear our message to take on the highest probability of receiving a receptive response. I find that selling the idea of giving Ron Paul a chance is helping me tally up votes faster than trying to sell his message myself. Once my friends have gone online and watched the videos, they slowly become believers.:)

THANKS!

My pleasure, Cowlesy. Lot's of good info for use in this poll. I spoke at the NY Meetup on Sunday, were you there?

[aknappjr]

Great find. Thanks for talking to us Brad!

[Cowlesy]

Brad - Yes I was there. I hope you find the time to spend a few hours with other Meetup groups who become primed to really spread the message of Freedom and seek you out.

Thanks again,
Ryan